AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sun Nov 15 · 4:00 AM
#81Away
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
27p
#90Home
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
28p
NDSU 46%54% HAW
Spread
HAW -1.5
Total
55
Moneyline
NDSU+118HAW-118
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Common opponents

8 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Dakota State
opponent
Hawai'i
away-6.6
UNLV#70
+7.7home
home+16.7
UTEP#133
+10.7away
home+17.8
Northern Illinois#134
+11.8away
home+11.2
Wyoming#119
+5.2away
home+11.9
Nevada#120
+6.0away
away+8.6
San José State#123
+12.7home
away-1.9
Sacramento State#111
+2.1home
away-0.4
New Mexico#86
+3.6home

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +1.595% interval: -22.4 to 25.480% interval: -15.9 to 18.9-16+19NDSU wins 46%HAW wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 28–28 NDSUHAW 25–53 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 28–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 32–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 35–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 39–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 42–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 46–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 49–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 53–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 21–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 25–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 28–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHAW 32–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 35–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 39–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHAW 42–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 46–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 49–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 18–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 21–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 25–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 28–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 32–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 35–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHAW 39–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 42–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 46–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 14–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 18–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 21–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 25–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 28–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHAW 32–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 35–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 39–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 42–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 11–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 14–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 18–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 21–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 25–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 28–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 32–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 35–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 39–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 7–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 11–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 14–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 18–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHAW 21–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 25–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 28–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 32–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 35–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 4–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 7–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 11–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 14–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 18–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 21–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 25–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 28–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 32–4 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNDSU +28NDSU +14PKHAW +14HAW +28margin →