CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 5:30 PM ET
#129Away
Jacksonville State
0-0 · AVR 48.8
7
Final
#13Home
North Dakota State
0-0 · AVR 68.9
33
Forecast win probability
JXST 27.5%72.5% NDSU
Projected margin
NDSU by 9.6
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
JXST 11 to NDSU 30
Win probability
NDSU 72.5%
FinalJXST 7 · NDSU 33model had +9.6, off by 16.4

Current team profiles

Jacksonville State
North Dakota State

When Jacksonville State has the ball

Passing

NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
JXST offense
#33
NDSU defense
#2
EPA comparison
0.36
#33
-0.15
#2
Pass EPA

Rushing

NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
JXST offense
#85
NDSU defense
#10
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
-0.15
#10
Rush EPA

Drive success

JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
JXST offense
#38
NDSU defense
#46
Success rates
47%
#38
38%
#46
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#54
-0.15
#4
EPA / play
1.17
#100
0.99
#3
Explosiveness
14%
#56
17%
#45
Havoc

When North Dakota State has the ball

Passing

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
JXST defense
#41
NDSU offense
#47
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
JXST defense
#91
NDSU offense
#93
EPA comparison
0.09
#91
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
JXST defense
#87
NDSU offense
#91
Success rates
42%
#87
42%
#91
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#62
0.12
#81
EPA / play
1.09
#19
1.28
#39
Explosiveness
16%
#77
14%
#59
Havoc

Current key players

Jacksonville State
QBCaden Creel
1112 yds · 9 TD · 4 INT
68.6177/729
WRFranklin Baret Jr.
1 rec · 18 yds · 0 TD
86.421/2069
STy Sims
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
75.5
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
82.441/2969
LBWalker O'Steen
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
77.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
80.478/1796
SCaleb Nix
30 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
82.0
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
43.5
Missed tackles
3
78.878/2969
LBMac Sanders
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.4
Coverage
77.1
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.5109/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • Andrew Paul · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Paul is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Franklin Baret Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Baret Jr has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Rollie Pinto · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Pinto is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Landon Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Watkins is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • AJ Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Watkins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Justus Savage · RBQues. · 2026-10-08

    Savage is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Nabi Hoyt · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Hoyt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

North Dakota State
QBNathan Hayes
995 yds · 7 TD · 2 INT
86.932/729
SWalker Braaten
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
92.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
60.4
Missed tackles
0
93.41/2969
LBDonovan Woolen
33 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.5
Coverage
74.6
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
88.220/1796
WRJackson Williams
22 rec · 358 yds · 1 TD
85.823/2069
WRJordan McCants
2 rec · 79 yds · 1 TD
78.171/2069
CBMarion Moore
8 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.6
Coverage
76.2
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
77.1121/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Braylon Toliver · RBout · 2026-10-09

    Toliver is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Cash Danner · TEout · 2026-10-09

    Danner is out of commission due to and undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Drake Schlosser · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Schlosser is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury and, he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kye Schlichting · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Schlichting is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • N. Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Nelson is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Brandon Walton · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Cortez LeGrant · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    LeGrant is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Henry Nelson · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Nelson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Jonathan Harvey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Harvey is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

Position units

Position-unit comparison

JXST
NDSU
vs
Offense
68.6
#108 of 138
QB
86.9
#30 of 138
73.8
#86 of 138
RB
73.8
#87 of 138
78.1
#17 of 138
WR
79.1
#14 of 138
72.3
#50 of 138
TE
72.4
#49 of 138
67.7
#70 of 138
OL
71.9
#35 of 138
Defense
70.9
#95 of 138
DL
77.3
#32 of 138
78.7
#32 of 138
LB
77.4
#42 of 138
77.3
#13 of 138
DB
79.5
#3 of 138
Common opponents