AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 7:30 PM
#119Away
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
21p
#81Home
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
32p
WYO 22%78% NDSU
Spread
NDSU -11.2
Total
53
Moneyline
WYO+355NDSU-355
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wyoming
opponent
North Dakota State
away+3.0
UTEP#133
+16.7home
home+9.0
Northern Illinois#134
+17.8home
away-15.3
UNLV#70
-6.6away
away-0.1
San José State#123
+8.6away
home-5.2
Hawai'i#90
-1.5away
home-3.9
Air Force#98
-0.2away
home-4.1
New Mexico#86
-0.4away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNDSU +11.295% interval: -12.7 to 35.180% interval: -6.2 to 28.6-6+29WYO wins 22%NDSU wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NDSU 35–21 WYONDSU 32–46 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 35–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 39–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 42–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 46–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 49–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 53–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNDSU 56–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNDSU 60–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNDSU 28–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 32–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNDSU 35–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 39–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 42–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 46–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNDSU 49–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNDSU 53–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 56–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 25–39 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 28–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 32–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNDSU 35–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNDSU 39–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNDSU 42–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 46–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 49–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 53–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 21–35 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 25–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 28–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 32–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNDSU 35–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 39–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNDSU 42–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 46–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 49–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 18–32 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 21–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 25–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 28–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNDSU 32–18 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 35–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNDSU 39–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 42–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 46–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 14–28 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 18–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 21–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNDSU 25–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNDSU 28–14 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNDSU 32–11 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 35–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 39–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 42–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 11–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 14–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNDSU 18–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 21–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 25–11 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 28–7 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNDSU 32–4 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNDSU 35–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWYO +14PKNDSU +14NDSU +28NDSU +42margin →