AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 11:00 PM
#81Away
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
27p
#70Home
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
33p
NDSU 33%67% UNLV
Spread
UNLV -6.6
Total
60
Moneyline
NDSU+207UNLV-207
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Dakota State
opponent
UNLV
away-1.5
Hawai'i#90
-7.7away
home+11.2
Wyoming#119
+15.3home
away-0.4
New Mexico#86
+3.7away
away-0.2
Air Force#98
+3.9away
home+11.9
Nevada#120
+16.0home
away+8.6
San José State#123
+12.7away
home+17.8
Northern Illinois#134
+21.8home

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +6.695% interval: -17.3 to 30.580% interval: -10.8 to 24-11+24NDSU wins 33%UNLV wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 35–28 NDSUUNLV 32–53 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 35–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 42–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 46–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 49–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 53–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 56–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 60–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 28–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 32–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 42–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNLV 46–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 49–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNLV 53–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 56–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 25–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 28–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 32–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 35–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNLV 39–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 42–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 46–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 49–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 53–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 21–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 25–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 28–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 32–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 35–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNLV 39–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 42–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 46–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 49–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 18–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 21–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 25–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 28–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNLV 35–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 39–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 42–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 46–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 14–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 18–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 21–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 25–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 28–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNLV 35–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 39–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 42–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 11–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 14–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 18–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNLV 21–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 25–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 28–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 32–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNLV 35–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 39–4 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalNDSU +21NDSU +7UNLV +7UNLV +21UNLV +35margin →