Passing
UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU offense
- #47
- UNLV defense
- #38
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.06
#38
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NDSU 59.9%40.1% UNLV
- Projected margin
- NDSU by 4.0
- Projected total
- 50
- 80% outcome range
- NDSU 24 to UNLV 15
- Win probability
- NDSU 59.9%
FinalNDSU 7 · UNLV 13model had -4.0, off by 10.0
Current team profiles
North Dakota StateUNLVWhen North Dakota State has the ball
Rushing
UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU offense
- #93
- UNLV defense
- #68
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.04
#68
Rush EPA
Drive success
UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU offense
- #91
- UNLV defense
- #50
Success rates
42%
#91
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#81
0.02
#50
EPA / play
1.28
#39
1.24
#80
Explosiveness
14%
#59
17%
#49
Havoc
When UNLV has the ball
Passing
NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU defense
- #2
- UNLV offense
- #101
EPA comparison
-0.15
#2
0.11
#101
Pass EPA
Rushing
NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU defense
- #10
- UNLV offense
- #88
EPA comparison
-0.15
#10
0.06
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NDSU defense
- #46
- UNLV offense
- #126
Success rates
38%
#46
37%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
-0.15
#4
0.06
#104
EPA / play
0.99
#3
1.26
#49
Explosiveness
17%
#45
16%
#88
Havoc
Current key players
North Dakota StateQBNathan Hayes
995 yds · 7 TD · 2 INT
86.932/729
SWalker Braaten
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 92.9
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 60.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
93.41/2969
LBDonovan Woolen
33 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.5
- Coverage
- 74.6
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
88.220/1796
WRJackson Williams
22 rec · 358 yds · 1 TD
85.823/2069
WRJordan McCants
2 rec · 79 yds · 1 TD
78.171/2069
CBMarion Moore
8 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.6
- Coverage
- 76.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 2.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.1121/2969
Availability reports · 9
- Braylon Toliver · RBout · 2026-10-09
Toliver is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Cash Danner · TEout · 2026-10-09
Danner is out of commission due to and undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Drake Schlosser · WRout · 2026-10-09
Schlosser is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury and, he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Kye Schlichting · WRout · 2026-10-09
Schlichting is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- N. Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Nelson is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Brandon Walton · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Walton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Cortez LeGrant · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
LeGrant is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Henry Nelson · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Nelson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Jonathan Harvey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Harvey is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
UNLVQBJackson Arnold
1068 yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
78.978/729
DBDenver Harris
18 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.6
- Coverage
- 79.9
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 13
- Yards allowed
- 158
- Passer rating allowed
- 104.5
- Missed tackles
- 4
78.094/2969
TEJae Beasley II
2 rec · 31 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 75.7
- Run blocking
- 78.5
- Penalties
- 1
75.544/1017
DBAvery Helm
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.3
- Coverage
- 71.5
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 35
- Passer rating allowed
- 87.5
- Missed tackles
- 0
72.1319/2969
WRTaz Reddicks
14 rec · 272 yds · 2 TD
71.8200/2069
RBKamran Williams
15 yds · 0 TD · 5.0 YPC
71.0287/1044
Availability reports · 2
- Taeshaun Lyons · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Lyons is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.
- DeAngelo Irvin Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Irvin Jr. is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
NDSUNorth Dakota State
UNLVUNLV
vs
Offense
86.9
#30 of 138
QB
Quarterback
78.9
#61 of 138
73.8
#87 of 138
RB
Running backs
70.9
#112 of 138
79.1
#14 of 138
WR
Receivers
68.3
#101 of 138
72.4
#49 of 138
TE
Tight ends
75.5
#35 of 138
71.9
#35 of 138
OL
Offensive line
61.0
#128 of 138
Defense
77.3
#32 of 138
DL
Defensive line
70.2
#105 of 138
77.4
#42 of 138
LB
Linebackers
64.2
#135 of 138
79.5
#3 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.0
#98 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
North Dakota State
opponent
UNLV
Hhome+28.0
WYOWyoming#126+12.8Hhome
Aaway+7.9
HAWHawai'i#135+15.0Aaway
Aaway+6.0
AFAir Force#74+3.3Aaway
Hhome+14.8
NEVNevada#109+12.3Hhome
Hhome+22.6
NIUNorthern Illinois#145+20.1Hhome
Aaway+10.4
SJSUSan José State#123+7.9Aaway
Aaway-6.7
UNMNew Mexico#33-9.2Aaway