CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UTEP 10.2%89.8% NDSU
Projected margin
NDSU by 20.0
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
NDSU 1 to NDSU 39
Win probability
NDSU 89.8%

Current team profiles

UTEP
North Dakota State

When UTEP has the ball

Passing

NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#136
NDSU defense
#2
EPA comparison
-0.18
#136
-0.15
#2
Pass EPA

Rushing

NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#132
NDSU defense
#10
EPA comparison
-0.10
#132
-0.15
#10
Rush EPA

Drive success

NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#135
NDSU defense
#46
Success rates
33%
#135
38%
#46
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#138
-0.15
#4
EPA / play
1.28
#39
0.99
#3
Explosiveness
23%
#137
17%
#45
Havoc

When North Dakota State has the ball

Passing

NDSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#137
NDSU offense
#47
EPA comparison
0.48
#137
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

NDSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#107
NDSU offense
#93
EPA comparison
0.14
#107
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

NDSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#127
NDSU offense
#91
Success rates
47%
#127
42%
#91
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#128
0.12
#81
EPA / play
1.22
#71
1.28
#39
Explosiveness
13%
#117
14%
#59
Havoc

Current key players

UTEP
QBEJ Colson Jr.
541 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
60.2270/729
SKane White-Tinsley
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
78.780/2969
CBTJ Tillman
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.0
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7141/2969
CBDecorian Thompson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.6
Coverage
73.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
32
Passer rating allowed
68.8
Missed tackles
1
73.8243/2969
LBVashon Brunswick II
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
61.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
70.0370/1796
LBGarrett Hawkins
20 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.3
Coverage
50.9
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
69.9374/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • EJ Colson Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Colson Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Simon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Simon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Mason Ferguson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

North Dakota State
QBNathan Hayes
995 yds · 7 TD · 2 INT
86.932/729
SWalker Braaten
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
92.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
60.4
Missed tackles
0
93.41/2969
LBDonovan Woolen
33 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.5
Coverage
74.6
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
88.220/1796
WRJackson Williams
22 rec · 358 yds · 1 TD
85.823/2069
WRJordan McCants
2 rec · 79 yds · 1 TD
78.171/2069
CBMarion Moore
8 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.6
Coverage
76.2
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
77.1121/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Braylon Toliver · RBout · 2026-10-09

    Toliver is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Cash Danner · TEout · 2026-10-09

    Danner is out of commission due to and undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Drake Schlosser · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Schlosser is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury and, he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kye Schlichting · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Schlichting is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • N. Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Nelson is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Brandon Walton · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Cortez LeGrant · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    LeGrant is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Henry Nelson · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Nelson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

  • Jonathan Harvey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Harvey is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UTEP
NDSU
vs
Offense
60.2
#131 of 138
QB
86.9
#30 of 138
63.0
#138 of 138
RB
73.8
#87 of 138
68.3
#103 of 138
WR
79.1
#14 of 138
60.0
#121 of 138
TE
72.4
#49 of 138
63.8
#106 of 138
OL
71.9
#35 of 138
Defense
71.2
#94 of 138
DL
77.3
#32 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
LB
77.4
#42 of 138
74.1
#44 of 138
DB
79.5
#3 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UTEP
opponent
North Dakota State
A-54.0
UNM#33
-6.7A
H-17.0
NEV#109
+14.8H
H-2.1
WYO#126
+28.0H
A0.0
NIU#145
+22.6H
A-11.5
AF#74
+6.0A
H-1.6
SJSU#123
+10.4A
H-4.1
HAW#135
+7.9A