AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM
#133Away
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
18p
#81Home
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
35p
UTEP 13%87% NDSU
Spread
NDSU -16.7
Total
53
Moneyline
UTEP+665NDSU-665
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTEP
opponent
North Dakota State
away-1.4
Northern Illinois#134
+17.8home
away-14.4
Air Force#98
-0.2away
away-14.6
New Mexico#86
-0.4away
home-3.0
Wyoming#119
+11.2home
home-2.2
Nevada#120
+11.9home
home-0.6
San José State#123
+8.6away
home-10.7
Hawai'i#90
-1.5away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNDSU +16.795% interval: -7.2 to 40.680% interval: -0.7 to 34.1-1+34UTEP wins 13%NDSU wins 87%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NDSU 35–21 UTEPNDSU 32–46 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNDSU 35–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNDSU 39–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNDSU 42–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 46–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 49–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 53–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 56–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 60–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 28–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 32–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 35–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNDSU 39–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNDSU 42–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 46–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 49–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 53–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNDSU 56–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 25–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 28–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 32–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 35–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 39–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNDSU 42–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNDSU 46–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNDSU 49–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 53–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 21–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 25–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 28–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 32–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNDSU 35–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 39–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNDSU 42–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 46–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 49–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 18–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 21–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 25–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 28–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNDSU 32–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 35–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNDSU 39–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 42–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 46–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 14–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 18–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 21–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 25–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 28–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNDSU 32–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNDSU 35–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNDSU 39–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 42–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 11–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 14–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 18–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNDSU 21–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNDSU 25–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 28–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 32–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNDSU 35–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalUTEP +14PKNDSU +14NDSU +28NDSU +42margin →