AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 8:30 PM
#81Away
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
32p
#123Home
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
23p
NDSU 73%28% SJSU
Spread
NDSU -8.6
Total
55
Moneyline
NDSU-264SJSU+264
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308

Common opponents

8 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Dakota State
opponent
San José State
home+11.9
Nevada#120
-4.2away
home+16.7
UTEP#133
+0.6away
home+17.8
Northern Illinois#134
+6.6home
away-1.5
Hawai'i#90
-12.7away
away-0.2
Air Force#98
-11.3away
home+11.2
Wyoming#119
+0.1home
away-6.6
UNLV#70
-12.7home
away-0.4
New Mexico#86
-6.5home

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNDSU +8.695% interval: -33.2 to 15.980% interval: -26.5 to 9.2-26+9NDSU wins 73%SJSU wins 28%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NDSU 32–25 SJSUSJSU 21–56 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 25–53 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 28–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSJSU 32–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 35–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 42–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 46–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 49–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 18–53 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 21–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 25–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 28–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 32–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 35–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 39–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSJSU 42–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 46–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 14–49 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 18–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 21–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 25–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 28–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSJSU 32–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 35–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 39–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 42–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 11–46 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 14–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 18–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 21–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSJSU 25–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSJSU 28–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 32–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 35–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 39–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 7–42 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 11–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 14–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 18–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSJSU 25–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 32–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 35–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 4–39 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 7–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 11–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 14–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 18–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 21–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSJSU 25–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 28–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 32–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 0–35 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 4–32 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 7–28 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 11–25 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 14–21 NDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 18–18 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 21–14 NDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 25–11 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–7 NDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalNDSU +35NDSU +21NDSU +7SJSU +7SJSU +21margin →