AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 9:00 PM
#134Away
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
17p
#81Home
North Dakota State
1-0 · AVR 46.6
34p
NIU 11%89% NDSU
Spread
NDSU -17.8
Total
51
Moneyline
NIU+806NDSU-806
Margin σ
14.6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northern Illinois
opponent
North Dakota State
away-9.0
Wyoming#119
+11.2home
home+1.4
UTEP#133
+16.7home
away-21.8
UNLV#70
-6.6away
away-6.6
San José State#123
+8.6away
home-3.3
Nevada#120
+11.9home
home-11.8
Hawai'i#90
-1.5away
home-10.4
Air Force#98
-0.2away

Projected margin

80% between 0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNDSU +17.895% interval: -6.2 to 41.780% interval: 0.4 to 35.1+0+35NIU wins 11%NDSU wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NDSU 35–14 NIUNDSU 32–39 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 35–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNDSU 39–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 42–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 46–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 49–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNDSU 53–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNDSU 56–14 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 60–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNDSU 28–35 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNDSU 32–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNDSU 35–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNDSU 39–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNDSU 42–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNDSU 46–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNDSU 49–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 53–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 56–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 25–32 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 28–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 32–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNDSU 35–21 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 39–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNDSU 42–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNDSU 46–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 49–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 53–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNDSU 21–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 25–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 28–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNDSU 32–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNDSU 35–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNDSU 39–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNDSU 42–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNDSU 46–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNDSU 49–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNDSU 18–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNDSU 21–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNDSU 25–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 28–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNDSU 32–11 NIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNDSU 35–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNDSU 39–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 42–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NDSU 14–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNDSU 18–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNDSU 21–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNDSU 25–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNDSU 28–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNDSU 32–4 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNDSU 35–0 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NDSU 11–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNDSU 14–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNDSU 18–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNDSU 21–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNDSU 25–4 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNDSU 28–0 NIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalNIU +7NDSU +7NDSU +21NDSU +35NDSU +49margin →