Passing
NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NIU offense
- #123
- NDSU defense
- #2
EPA comparison
0.00
#123
-0.15
#2
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 4:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NIU 7.3%92.7% NDSU
- Projected margin
- NDSU by 22.6
- Projected total
- 49
- 80% outcome range
- NDSU 4 to NDSU 41
- Win probability
- NDSU 92.7%
Current team profiles
Northern IllinoisNorth Dakota StateWhen Northern Illinois has the ball
Rushing
NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NIU offense
- #137
- NDSU defense
- #10
EPA comparison
-0.13
#137
-0.15
#10
Rush EPA
Drive success
NDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NIU offense
- #125
- NDSU defense
- #46
Success rates
37%
#125
38%
#46
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#135
-0.15
#4
EPA / play
1.14
#110
0.99
#3
Explosiveness
17%
#112
17%
#45
Havoc
When North Dakota State has the ball
Passing
NDSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NIU defense
- #89
- NDSU offense
- #47
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
0.28
#47
Pass EPA
Rushing
NDSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NIU defense
- #131
- NDSU offense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.23
#131
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
NDSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NIU defense
- #131
- NDSU offense
- #91
Success rates
49%
#131
42%
#91
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#121
0.12
#81
EPA / play
1.20
#54
1.28
#39
Explosiveness
10%
#136
14%
#59
Havoc
Current key players
Northern IllinoisQBBrady Davidson
27 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
69.3166/729
DBAaron Warren
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.5
- Coverage
- 82.6
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 33
- Passer rating allowed
- 80.6
- Missed tackles
- 3
82.839/2969
LBJashawn Nelson
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.3
- Coverage
- 74.8
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 27
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
79.195/1796
RBJaidaun Cranford
59 yds · 0 TD · 7.4 YPC
74.6185/1044
CBYassine Falke
13 tkl · 0 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.1
- Coverage
- 65.8
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 8
- Yards allowed
- 69
- Passer rating allowed
- 30.7
- Missed tackles
- 3
70.7404/2969
WRDeAree Rogers
31 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
69.9273/2069
Availability reports · 2
- Glen Weber · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Weber is battling with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
- Da'sean Howard · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Howard is suffering with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.
North Dakota StateQBNathan Hayes
995 yds · 7 TD · 2 INT
86.932/729
SWalker Braaten
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 92.9
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 60.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
93.41/2969
LBDonovan Woolen
33 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.5
- Coverage
- 74.6
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
88.220/1796
WRJackson Williams
22 rec · 358 yds · 1 TD
85.823/2069
WRJordan McCants
2 rec · 79 yds · 1 TD
78.171/2069
CBMarion Moore
8 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.6
- Coverage
- 76.2
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 8
- Passer rating allowed
- 2.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.1121/2969
Availability reports · 9
- Braylon Toliver · RBout · 2026-10-09
Toliver is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Cash Danner · TEout · 2026-10-09
Danner is out of commission due to and undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Drake Schlosser · WRout · 2026-10-09
Schlosser is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury and, he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Kye Schlichting · WRout · 2026-10-09
Schlichting is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- N. Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Nelson is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Brandon Walton · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Walton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Cortez LeGrant · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
LeGrant is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Henry Nelson · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Nelson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
- Jonathan Harvey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Harvey is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Wolf Pack on Saturday, October 17th .
Position units
Position-unit comparison
NIUNorthern Illinois
NDSUNorth Dakota State
vs
Offense
69.3
#104 of 138
QB
Quarterback
86.9
#30 of 138
72.5
#103 of 138
RB
Running backs
73.8
#87 of 138
67.4
#117 of 138
WR
Receivers
79.1
#14 of 138
65.0
#90 of 138
TE
Tight ends
72.4
#49 of 138
64.8
#97 of 138
OL
Offensive line
71.9
#35 of 138
Defense
64.5
#137 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.3
#32 of 138
69.3
#109 of 138
LB
Linebackers
77.4
#42 of 138
69.9
#100 of 138
DB
Secondary
79.5
#3 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Northern Illinois
opponent
North Dakota State
Aaway-10.0
WYOWyoming#126+28.0Hhome
Hhome-21.0
AFAir Force#74+6.0Aaway
Aaway-9.6
SJSUSan José State#123+10.4Aaway
Hhome-5.2
NEVNevada#109+14.8Hhome
Hhome0.0
UTEPUTEP#170+20.0Hhome
Hhome-6.7
HAWHawai'i#135+7.9Aaway
Aaway-20.1
UNLVUNLV#83-6.0Aaway