AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#86Away
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
26p
#90Home
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
29p
UNM 40%60% HAW
Spread
HAW -3.6
Total
55
Moneyline
UNM+149HAW-149
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNM advantageevenHAW advantage →
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
UNM +6
UNM run
UNM +13
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
UNM +5
HAW run
UNM +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · HAW
MLB · UNM
61.2
83.1
UNM +22
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Austin Brawley
X · HAW
CB1 · UNM
57.9
78.7
UNM +21
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · UNM
CB1 · HAW
49.6
80.9
HAW +31
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Darren Agu
LT · HAW
EDGE · UNM
44.1
77.3
UNM +33
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · UNM
MLB · HAW
56.9
56.5
dead even
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Jeremiah Hughes
TE · UNM
FS · HAW
58.0
54.3
UNM +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico
opponent
Hawai'i
home-3.7
UNLV#70
+7.7home
away+6.5
San José State#123
+12.7home
away+9.3
New Mexico State#130
+15.4home
home+14.6
UTEP#133
+10.7away
away+4.8
Nevada#120
+6.0away
away+4.1
Wyoming#119
+5.2away
home+0.4
North Dakota State#81
+1.5home

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +3.695% interval: -20.3 to 27.680% interval: -13.7 to 21-14+21UNM wins 40%HAW wins 60%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 32–25 UNMHAW 28–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 32–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 35–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 39–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 42–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 46–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 49–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 53–25 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 56–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesHAW 25–46 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 28–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 32–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 35–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 39–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 42–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 46–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 49–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 53–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 21–42 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 25–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHAW 28–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHAW 32–32 UNM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 35–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 39–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHAW 42–21 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 46–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 49–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 18–39 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 21–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 25–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 28–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHAW 32–25 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHAW 35–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 39–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 42–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 46–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 14–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 18–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 21–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHAW 25–25 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 28–21 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 32–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHAW 35–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 39–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 42–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 11–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 14–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 18–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 21–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 25–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 28–14 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 32–11 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 35–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 39–4 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 7–28 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 11–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 14–21 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 18–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 21–14 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 25–11 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 28–7 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 32–4 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 35–0 UNM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNM +21UNM +7HAW +7HAW +21HAW +35margin →