CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UNM 78.2%21.8% HAW
Projected margin
UNM by 11.9
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
UNM 31 to HAW 7
Win probability
UNM 78.2%

Current team profiles

New Mexico
Hawai'i

When New Mexico has the ball

Passing

HAW defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#101
HAW defense
#89
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.20
#89
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#12
HAW defense
#128
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.21
#128
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#73
HAW defense
#125
Success rates
43%
#73
46%
#125
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#52
0.22
#125
EPA / play
1.26
#52
1.17
#41
Explosiveness
12%
#24
13%
#109
Havoc

When Hawai'i has the ball

Passing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#13
HAW offense
#114
EPA comparison
-0.06
#13
0.07
#114
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#18
HAW offense
#116
EPA comparison
-0.10
#18
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#1
HAW offense
#115
Success rates
31%
#1
39%
#115
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#2
0.02
#118
EPA / play
1.46
#136
1.13
#118
Explosiveness
26%
#1
17%
#112
Havoc

Current key players

New Mexico
QBJames Laubstein
0 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
91.29/729
CBJoshua Barnes
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
93.4
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
91.64/2969
RBKiefer Sibley
205 yds · 2 TD · 5.4 YPC
80.082/1044
LBMercury Swaim
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.0
Coverage
66.2
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
1
77.1136/1796
LBJaxton Eck
25 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
76.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
77.1138/1796
CBJahmir Torres
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
22
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.8133/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Massiah Mingo · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Mingo is nursing with a foot injury, and he is not projected to face against the Aggies on Saturday.

  • Tripp Walsh · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Walsh is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Troy Omeire · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Omeire is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Joey Olsen · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Olsen is battling with a knee ACL injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jack Layne · QBout · 2026-08-27

    Layne is laid up with an elbow injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Abraham Williams · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Williams is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Shawn Miller · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Miller is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Darrion Bowers · RBQues. · 2026-09-20

    Bowers is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against New Mexico State on Saturday.

Hawai'i
QBMicah Alejado
1361 yds · 4 TD · 3 INT
60.9261/729
LBJulian Smith
5 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
63.5
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
81.266/1796
LBMatteus Ioane
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.7
Coverage
81.5
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
80.082/1796
RBDeVon Rice
276 yds · 3 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.3127/1044
WRTama Uiliata
27 rec · 245 yds · 1 TD
76.5101/2069
DBJeremiah Hughes
11 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
73.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
64
Passer rating allowed
71.8
Missed tackles
2
74.4213/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Robert Haynes IV · WRout · 2026-09-03

    Haynes IV is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Pofele Ashlock · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Ashlock is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Carson Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tre' Griffiths · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Griffiths is dealing with an undisclosed injury and it is unclear if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Anthony Hickman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hickman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Isaac Jaramilla-Phe · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jaramilla-Phe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17t

  • Oakie Salave'a · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Salave'a is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNM
HAW
vs
Offense
91.2
#8 of 138
QB
60.9
#129 of 138
78.9
#41 of 138
RB
75.5
#69 of 138
66.9
#123 of 138
WR
70.1
#78 of 138
71.3
#55 of 138
TE
72.7
#46 of 138
72.8
#29 of 138
OL
58.5
#137 of 138
Defense
75.9
#48 of 138
DL
72.8
#73 of 138
74.8
#60 of 138
LB
78.9
#27 of 138
78.8
#6 of 138
DB
68.5
#115 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

New Mexico
opponent
Hawai'i
H+54.0
UTEP#170
+4.1A
A+14.0
WYO#126
-17.0A
H+9.2
UNLV#83
-15.0H
A+14.4
SJSU#123
-4.0H
H+6.7
NDSU#61
-7.9H
A+13.4
NEV#109
-1.1A
A+24.0
NMSU#120
+10.0H