AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#133Away
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
20p
#86Home
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
34p
UTEP 16%84% UNM
Spread
UNM -14.6
Total
54
Moneyline
UTEP+531UNM-531
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTEP advantageevenUNM advantage →
UTEP throw
UNM +58
UTEP run
UNM +69
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
UNM +18
UNM run
UTEP +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Shay Smith
RB · UNM
MLB · UTEP
56.9
80.0
UTEP +23
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · UTEP
MLB · UNM
51.0
83.1
UNM +32
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Jaime Guerrero
TE · UNM
FS · UTEP
58.0
57.7
dead even
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Austin Brawley
X · UTEP
CB1 · UNM
36.6
78.7
UNM +42
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Kode Lowe
X · UNM
CB1 · UTEP
49.6
61.7
UTEP +12
over the middle
Judah Ezinwa
vs
Tavian Combs
TE · UTEP
FS · UNM
35.7
58.6
UNM +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTEP
opponent
New Mexico
away-14.4
Air Force#98
+2.7home
away-16.7
North Dakota State#81
+0.4home
away-36.8
Oklahoma#11
-26.0away
home-0.6
San José State#123
+6.5away
home-10.7
Hawai'i#90
-3.6away
home-3.0
Wyoming#119
+4.1away
home-2.2
Nevada#120
+4.8away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +14.695% interval: -9.3 to 38.580% interval: -2.8 to 32-3+32UTEP wins 16%UNM wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 35–21 UTEPUNM 32–46 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 35–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 39–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 42–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 46–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 49–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 53–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 56–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 60–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 28–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 32–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 35–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNM 39–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 42–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 46–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 49–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 53–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 56–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 25–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 28–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 32–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 35–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNM 39–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNM 42–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 46–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 49–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 53–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 21–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 25–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 28–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 32–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 35–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNM 39–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNM 42–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 46–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 49–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 18–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 21–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 25–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 28–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 32–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNM 35–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 39–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 42–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 46–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 14–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 18–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 21–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 25–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 28–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 32–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNM 35–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 39–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 42–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 11–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 14–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 18–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 21–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 25–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 28–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 32–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNM 35–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalUTEP +14PKUNM +14UNM +28UNM +42margin →