CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UTEP 5.2%94.8% UNM
Projected margin
UNM by 23.5
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
UNM 6 to UNM 42
Win probability
UNM 94.8%
FinalUTEP 7 · UNM 61model had +23.5, off by 30.5

Current team profiles

UTEP
New Mexico

When UTEP has the ball

Passing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#136
UNM defense
#13
EPA comparison
-0.18
#136
-0.06
#13
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#132
UNM defense
#18
EPA comparison
-0.10
#132
-0.10
#18
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#135
UNM defense
#1
Success rates
33%
#135
31%
#1
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#138
-0.18
#2
EPA / play
1.28
#39
1.46
#136
Explosiveness
23%
#137
26%
#1
Havoc

When New Mexico has the ball

Passing

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#137
UNM offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.48
#137
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#107
UNM offense
#12
EPA comparison
0.14
#107
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#127
UNM offense
#73
Success rates
47%
#127
43%
#73
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#128
0.19
#52
EPA / play
1.22
#71
1.26
#52
Explosiveness
13%
#117
12%
#24
Havoc

Current key players

UTEP
QBEJ Colson Jr.
541 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
60.2270/729
SKane White-Tinsley
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
78.780/2969
CBTJ Tillman
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.0
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7141/2969
CBDecorian Thompson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.6
Coverage
73.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
32
Passer rating allowed
68.8
Missed tackles
1
73.8243/2969
LBVashon Brunswick II
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
61.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
70.0370/1796
LBGarrett Hawkins
20 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.3
Coverage
50.9
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
69.9374/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • EJ Colson Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Colson Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Simon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Simon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Mason Ferguson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

New Mexico
QBJames Laubstein
0 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
91.29/729
CBJoshua Barnes
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
93.4
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
91.64/2969
RBKiefer Sibley
205 yds · 2 TD · 5.4 YPC
80.082/1044
LBMercury Swaim
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.0
Coverage
66.2
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
1
77.1136/1796
LBJaxton Eck
25 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
76.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
77.1138/1796
CBJahmir Torres
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
22
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.8133/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Massiah Mingo · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Mingo is nursing with a foot injury, and he is not projected to face against the Aggies on Saturday.

  • Tripp Walsh · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Walsh is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Troy Omeire · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Omeire is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Joey Olsen · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Olsen is battling with a knee ACL injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jack Layne · QBout · 2026-08-27

    Layne is laid up with an elbow injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Abraham Williams · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Williams is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Shawn Miller · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Miller is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Darrion Bowers · RBQues. · 2026-09-20

    Bowers is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against New Mexico State on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UTEP
UNM
vs
Offense
60.2
#131 of 138
QB
91.2
#8 of 138
63.0
#138 of 138
RB
78.9
#41 of 138
68.3
#103 of 138
WR
66.9
#123 of 138
60.0
#121 of 138
TE
71.3
#55 of 138
63.8
#106 of 138
OL
72.8
#29 of 138
Defense
71.2
#94 of 138
DL
75.9
#48 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
LB
74.8
#60 of 138
74.1
#44 of 138
DB
78.8
#6 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UTEP
opponent
New Mexico
A-51.0
OU#19
-8.0A
H-17.0
NEV#109
+13.4A
A-20.0
NDSU#61
+6.7H
A-11.5
AF#74
+15.1H
H-2.1
WYO#126
+14.0A
H-1.6
SJSU#123
+14.4A
H-4.1
HAW#135
+11.9A