AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:30 PM
Rio Grande Rivalry
#86Away
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
32p
#130Home
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
23p
UNM 73%27% NMSU
Spread
UNM -9.3
Total
54
Moneyline
UNM-272NMSU+272
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNM advantageevenNMSU advantage →
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
UNM +20
UNM run
UNM +12
NMSU throw
UNM +44
NMSU run
UNM +72

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · NMSU
MLB · UNM
48.5
83.1
UNM +35
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Austin Brawley
X · NMSU
CB1 · UNM
49.2
78.7
UNM +29
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · UNM
MLB · NMSU
56.9
68.2
NMSU +11
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Bernock Iya
X · UNM
CB1 · NMSU
49.6
74.2
NMSU +25
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Walter Owens
TE · UNM
FS · NMSU
58.0
50.5
UNM +8
over the middle
Ray Lotten
vs
Tavian Combs
TE · NMSU
FS · UNM
34.5
58.6
UNM +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico
opponent
New Mexico State
away-3.6
Hawai'i#90
-15.4away
home+20.7
Mercyhurst
+14.4home

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +9.395% interval: -33.2 to 14.680% interval: -26.7 to 8.1-27+8UNM wins 73%NMSU wins 27%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 32–25 NMSUNMSU 21–56 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 25–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 28–49 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 32–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 35–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 39–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 42–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 46–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 49–28 UNM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNMSU 18–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 21–49 UNM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 25–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 28–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNMSU 32–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 35–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 39–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 42–28 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 46–25 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 14–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 18–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 21–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 25–39 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNMSU 28–35 UNM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 32–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 35–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 39–25 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 42–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 11–46 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 14–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 18–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 21–35 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNMSU 25–32 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNMSU 28–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 32–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 35–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 39–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 7–42 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 11–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 14–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–32 UNM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 21–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNMSU 25–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 28–21 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 32–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 35–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 4–39 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 7–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 11–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 14–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 18–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNMSU 21–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 25–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 28–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 32–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 0–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 4–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 7–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 11–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 14–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 18–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 21–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 25–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 28–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNM +35UNM +21UNM +7NMSU +7NMSU +21margin →