AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 AM
Away
Mercyhurst
—
18p
#86Home
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
39p
MERC 7%93% UNM
Spread
UNM -20.7
Total
57
Moneyline
MERC+1325UNM-1325
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Projected margin

80% between 4 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +20.795% interval: -2.3 to 43.780% interval: 4 to 37.5+4+38MERC wins 7%UNM wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 39–18 MERCUNM 35–42 MERC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 39–39 MERC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 42–35 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 46–32 MERC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 49–28 MERC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 53–25 MERC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 56–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 60–18 MERC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 63–14 MERC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 32–39 MERC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 35–35 MERC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 39–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 42–28 MERC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 46–25 MERC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 49–21 MERC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 53–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 56–14 MERC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 60–11 MERC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 28–35 MERC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 32–32 MERC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 35–28 MERC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 39–25 MERC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 42–21 MERC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNM 46–18 MERC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 49–14 MERC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 53–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 56–7 MERC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 25–32 MERC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 28–28 MERC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 32–25 MERC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 35–21 MERC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 39–18 MERC neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesUNM 42–14 MERC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNM 46–11 MERC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 49–7 MERC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 53–4 MERC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 21–28 MERC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 25–25 MERC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 28–21 MERC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 32–18 MERC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 35–14 MERC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNM 39–11 MERC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 42–7 MERC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 46–4 MERC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 49–0 MERC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 18–25 MERC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 21–21 MERC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 25–18 MERC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 28–14 MERC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 32–11 MERC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 35–7 MERC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 39–4 MERC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 42–0 MERC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UNM 14–21 MERC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 18–18 MERC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 21–14 MERC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 25–11 MERC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 28–7 MERC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 32–4 MERC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 35–0 MERC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMERC +7UNM +7UNM +21UNM +35UNM +49margin →