AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sun Nov 22 · 2:00 AM
#86Away
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
28p
#119Home
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
24p
UNM 61%39% WYO
Spread
UNM -4.1
Total
53
Moneyline
UNM-156WYO+156
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNM advantageevenWYO advantage →
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
UNM +17
UNM run
UNM +31
WYO throw
UNM +55
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
UNM +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · WYO
MLB · UNM
57.2
83.1
UNM +26
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Ian Bell
X · UNM
CB1 · WYO
49.6
77.1
WYO +27
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · UNM
MLB · WYO
56.9
65.7
WYO +9
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Austin Brawley
X · WYO
CB1 · UNM
41.3
78.7
UNM +37
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Jaden DaCosta
TE · UNM
FS · WYO
58.0
57.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting Sims
Nathan Geiger
vs
Darren Agu
LT · WYO
EDGE · UNM
17.6
77.3
UNM +60

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico
opponent
Wyoming
home+22.1
Central Michigan#107
-4.4away
home-3.7
UNLV#70
-15.3away
home+14.6
UTEP#133
+3.0away
home+0.4
North Dakota State#81
-11.2away
away+6.5
San José State#123
-0.1away
home+2.7
Air Force#98
-3.9home
away-3.6
Hawai'i#90
-5.2home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +4.195% interval: -28 to 19.880% interval: -21.5 to 13.3-21+13UNM wins 61%WYO wins 39%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 32–25 WYOWYO 21–56 UNM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWYO 25–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWYO 28–49 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWYO 32–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWYO 35–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 39–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWYO 42–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 46–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 49–28 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 18–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 21–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 25–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 28–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 32–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 35–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 39–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 42–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 46–25 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWYO 14–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 18–46 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 21–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 25–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 28–35 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWYO 32–32 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWYO 35–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 39–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 42–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 11–46 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 14–42 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 18–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 21–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 25–32 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWYO 28–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWYO 32–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 35–21 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 39–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 7–42 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWYO 11–39 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWYO 14–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWYO 18–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWYO 21–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWYO 25–25 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWYO 28–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWYO 32–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 35–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 4–39 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 7–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWYO 11–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWYO 14–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 18–25 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWYO 21–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWYO 25–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWYO 28–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWYO 32–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 0–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWYO 4–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWYO 7–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWYO 11–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWYO 14–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 18–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWYO 21–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWYO 25–11 UNM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWYO 28–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNM +35UNM +21UNM +7WYO +7WYO +21margin →