AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 9:30 PM
#98Away
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
29p
#86Home
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
32p
AF 43%57% UNM
Spread
UNM -2.7
Total
61
Moneyline
AF+135UNM-135
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AF advantageevenUNM advantage →
AF throw
AF +21
AF run
AF +6
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
UNM +47
UNM run
UNM +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Darren Agu
LT · AF
EDGE · UNM
98.9
77.3
AF +22
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · AF
MLB · UNM
68.8
83.1
UNM +14
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Austin Brawley
X · AF
CB1 · UNM
59.7
78.7
UNM +19
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · UNM
MLB · AF
56.9
62.5
AF +6
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Max Mustell
X · UNM
CB1 · AF
49.6
53.7
AF +4
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
RJ Reedus
TE · UNM
FS · AF
58.0
35.6
UNM +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Air Force
opponent
New Mexico
home+11.3
San José State#123
+6.5away
away+4.6
Nevada#120
+4.8away
home+0.2
North Dakota State#81
+0.4home
home-3.9
UNLV#70
-3.7home
away+3.9
Wyoming#119
+4.1away
home+14.4
UTEP#133
+14.6home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +2.795% interval: -21.9 to 27.380% interval: -15.2 to 20.6-15+21AF wins 43%UNM wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 32–32 AFUNM 28–56 AF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUNM 32–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 35–49 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 39–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNM 42–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 46–39 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 49–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 53–32 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 56–28 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 25–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 28–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 32–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 35–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 39–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 42–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 46–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 49–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 53–25 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 21–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 25–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 28–42 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNM 32–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 35–35 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNM 39–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 42–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 46–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 49–21 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 18–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 21–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 25–39 AF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 28–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNM 32–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNM 35–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 39–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 42–21 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 46–18 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 14–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 18–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 21–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 25–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 28–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 32–25 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 35–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 39–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 42–14 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 11–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 14–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 18–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 21–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 25–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 28–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 32–18 AF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNM 35–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 39–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 7–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 11–32 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 14–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNM 18–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 21–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 25–18 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 28–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNM 32–11 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 35–7 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalAF +28AF +14PKUNM +14UNM +28margin →