AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#86Away
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
31p
#123Home
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
25p
UNM 67%33% SJSU
Spread
UNM -6.5
Total
56
Moneyline
UNM-199SJSU+199
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNM advantageevenSJSU advantage →
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
UNM +28
UNM run
UNM +10
SJSU throw
UNM +33
SJSU run
UNM +55

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · SJSU
MLB · UNM
49.8
83.1
UNM +33
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Austin Brawley
X · SJSU
CB1 · UNM
52.8
78.7
UNM +26
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · UNM
MLB · SJSU
56.9
58.0
dead even
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · UNM
CB1 · SJSU
49.6
53.8
SJSU +4
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Runye Norton
TE · UNM
FS · SJSU
58.0
36.7
UNM +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico
opponent
San José State
home+14.6
UTEP#133
+0.6away
home+2.7
Air Force#98
-11.3away
away-3.6
Hawai'i#90
-12.7away
home+0.4
North Dakota State#81
-8.6home
away+4.8
Nevada#120
-4.2away
home-3.7
UNLV#70
-12.7home
away+4.1
Wyoming#119
+0.1home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +6.595% interval: -30.4 to 17.480% interval: -23.9 to 10.9-24+11UNM wins 67%SJSU wins 33%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 32–25 SJSUSJSU 21–56 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 25–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–49 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 32–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 35–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 39–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 42–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 46–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 49–28 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 18–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 21–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 25–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 28–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSJSU 32–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 35–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 39–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 42–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 46–25 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 14–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 18–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 21–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 25–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 28–35 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSJSU 32–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 35–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 42–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 11–46 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 14–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 18–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 21–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 25–32 UNM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSJSU 28–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 32–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 35–21 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 39–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 7–42 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 11–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 14–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 18–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 21–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSJSU 25–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 28–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 32–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 35–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 4–39 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 7–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 11–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 14–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 18–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 21–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 25–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 28–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 32–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 0–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 4–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSJSU 7–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 11–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 14–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 18–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 25–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 28–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNM +35UNM +21UNM +7SJSU +7SJSU +21margin →