CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
UNM 82.1%17.9% SJSU
Projected margin
UNM by 14.4
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
UNM 33 to SJSU 4
Win probability
UNM 82.1%

Current team profiles

New Mexico
San José State

When New Mexico has the ball

Passing

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#101
SJSU defense
#52
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.09
#52
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#12
SJSU defense
#98
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.11
#98
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#73
SJSU defense
#107
Success rates
43%
#73
44%
#107
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#52
0.05
#60
EPA / play
1.26
#52
1.05
#9
Explosiveness
12%
#24
15%
#84
Havoc

When San José State has the ball

Passing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#13
SJSU offense
#62
EPA comparison
-0.06
#13
0.25
#62
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#18
SJSU offense
#113
EPA comparison
-0.10
#18
-0.01
#113
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#1
SJSU offense
#102
Success rates
31%
#1
40%
#102
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#2
0.10
#89
EPA / play
1.46
#136
1.14
#113
Explosiveness
26%
#1
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

New Mexico
QBJames Laubstein
0 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
91.29/729
CBJoshua Barnes
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
93.4
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
91.64/2969
RBKiefer Sibley
205 yds · 2 TD · 5.4 YPC
80.082/1044
LBMercury Swaim
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.0
Coverage
66.2
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
1
77.1136/1796
LBJaxton Eck
25 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
76.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
77.1138/1796
CBJahmir Torres
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
22
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.8133/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Massiah Mingo · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Mingo is nursing with a foot injury, and he is not projected to face against the Aggies on Saturday.

  • Tripp Walsh · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Walsh is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Troy Omeire · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Omeire is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Joey Olsen · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Olsen is battling with a knee ACL injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jack Layne · QBout · 2026-08-27

    Layne is laid up with an elbow injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Abraham Williams · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Williams is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Shawn Miller · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Miller is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Darrion Bowers · RBQues. · 2026-09-20

    Bowers is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against New Mexico State on Saturday.

San José State
QBLuke Weaver
1278 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
65.7207/729
SPierce Walker
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
80.0
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
0
77.999/2969
RBJabari Bates
487 yds · 0 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.8116/1044
SCharles Cox III
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.3
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.3263/2969
STuli Tagovailoa-Amosa
23 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.1
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
54
Passer rating allowed
55.6
Missed tackles
5
73.1273/2969
WRCooper Hoch
19 rec · 285 yds · 3 TD
72.5181/2069
Availability reports · 1
  • Cooper Hoch · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hoch is hampered by a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Miners on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNM
SJSU
vs
Offense
91.2
#8 of 138
QB
65.7
#117 of 138
78.9
#41 of 138
RB
71.3
#108 of 138
66.9
#123 of 138
WR
68.2
#105 of 138
71.3
#55 of 138
TE
51.2
#138 of 138
72.8
#29 of 138
OL
61.4
#125 of 138
Defense
75.9
#48 of 138
DL
82.7
#6 of 138
74.8
#60 of 138
LB
67.2
#124 of 138
78.8
#6 of 138
DB
73.0
#56 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

New Mexico
opponent
San José State
H+54.0
UTEP#170
+1.6A
H+15.1
AF#74
-7.2A
H+6.7
NDSU#61
-10.4H
H+9.2
UNLV#83
-7.9H
A+13.4
NEV#109
-3.6A
A+14.0
WYO#126
-3.0H
A+11.9
HAW#135
+4.0A