AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:30 PM
#86Away
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
13p
#11Home
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
39p
UNM 4%96% OU
Spread
OU -26.0
Total
52
Moneyline
UNM+2560OU-2560
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNM advantageevenOU advantage →
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
OU +41
UNM run
OU +51
OU throw
OU +14
OU run
UNM +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Darren Agu
LT · OU
EDGE · UNM
74.3
77.3
UNM +3
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Austin Brawley
X · OU
CB1 · UNM
71.1
78.7
UNM +8
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · UNM
MLB · OU
56.9
92.3
OU +35
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · OU
MLB · UNM
62.3
83.1
UNM +21
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · UNM
CB1 · OU
49.6
86.1
OU +36
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Reggie Powers III
TE · UNM
FS · OU
58.0
75.8
OU +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 9 and 43
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +26.095% interval: 2.1 to 49.980% interval: 8.6 to 43.4+9+43UNM wins 4%OU wins 96%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OU 39–11 UNMOU 35–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 39–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 42–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 46–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 49–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 53–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 56–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 60–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 63–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 32–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 35–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 39–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 42–21 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 46–18 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 49–14 UNM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 53–11 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 56–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 60–4 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 28–28 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 32–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 35–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 39–18 UNM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOU 42–14 UNM neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOU 46–11 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 49–7 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 53–4 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 56–0 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 25–25 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 28–21 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 32–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 35–14 UNM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOU 39–11 UNM neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOU 42–7 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 46–4 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 49–0 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OU 21–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 25–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 28–14 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 32–11 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 35–7 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 39–4 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 42–0 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OU 18–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 21–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 25–11 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 28–7 UNM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 32–4 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 35–0 UNM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OU 14–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 18–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 21–7 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 25–4 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 28–0 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalPKOU +14OU +28OU +42OU +56margin →