CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UNM 8.1%91.9% OU
Projected margin
OU by 20.6
Projected total
47
80% outcome range
OU 3 to OU 39
Win probability
OU 91.9%
FinalUNM 6 · OU 14model had +20.6, off by 12.6

Current team profiles

New Mexico
Oklahoma

When New Mexico has the ball

Passing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#101
OU defense
#12
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
-0.07
#12
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#12
OU defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
-0.08
#26
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#73
OU defense
#2
Success rates
43%
#73
32%
#2
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#52
-0.16
#3
EPA / play
1.26
#52
1.27
#89
Explosiveness
12%
#24
21%
#14
Havoc

When Oklahoma has the ball

Passing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#13
OU offense
#55
EPA comparison
-0.06
#13
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#18
OU offense
#138
EPA comparison
-0.10
#18
-0.24
#138
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#1
OU offense
#119
Success rates
31%
#1
38%
#119
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#2
-0.04
#129
EPA / play
1.46
#136
1.06
#132
Explosiveness
26%
#1
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

New Mexico
QBJames Laubstein
0 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
91.29/729
CBJoshua Barnes
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
93.4
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
91.64/2969
RBKiefer Sibley
205 yds · 2 TD · 5.4 YPC
80.082/1044
LBMercury Swaim
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.0
Coverage
66.2
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
1
77.1136/1796
LBJaxton Eck
25 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
76.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
77.1138/1796
CBJahmir Torres
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
22
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.8133/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Massiah Mingo · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Mingo is nursing with a foot injury, and he is not projected to face against the Aggies on Saturday.

  • Tripp Walsh · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Walsh is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Troy Omeire · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Omeire is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Joey Olsen · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Olsen is battling with a knee ACL injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jack Layne · QBout · 2026-08-27

    Layne is laid up with an elbow injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Abraham Williams · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Williams is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Shawn Miller · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Miller is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Darrion Bowers · RBQues. · 2026-09-20

    Bowers is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against New Mexico State on Saturday.

Oklahoma
QBWhitt Newbauer
6 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
65.3214/729
DBPeyton Bowen
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
84.925/2969
LBDane Bathurst
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
63.9
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.560/1796
TETrynae Washington
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.4
Run blocking
81.4
Penalties
0
79.229/1017
WRIsaiah Sategna III
20 rec · 267 yds · 2 TD
75.7115/2069
DBEli Bowen
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
64.2
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
124
Passer rating allowed
58.4
Missed tackles
1
70.5412/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Trell Harris · WRout · 2026-09-15

    Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jer'Michael Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Van Dorselaer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dorselaer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNM
OU
vs
Offense
91.2
#8 of 138
QB
65.3
#119 of 138
78.9
#41 of 138
RB
67.2
#134 of 138
66.9
#123 of 138
WR
68.7
#99 of 138
71.3
#55 of 138
TE
79.2
#27 of 138
72.8
#29 of 138
OL
73.3
#25 of 138
Defense
75.9
#48 of 138
DL
77.6
#30 of 138
74.8
#60 of 138
LB
73.7
#74 of 138
78.8
#6 of 138
DB
71.9
#72 of 138
Common opponents