CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Fri Nov 6 · 9:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UNM 80.3%19.7% NEV
Projected margin
UNM by 13.4
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
UNM 32 to NEV 5
Win probability
UNM 80.3%

Current team profiles

New Mexico
Nevada

When New Mexico has the ball

Passing

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#101
NEV defense
#82
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.18
#82
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#12
NEV defense
#102
EPA comparison
0.26
#12
0.13
#102
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM offense
#73
NEV defense
#60
Success rates
43%
#73
39%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#52
0.12
#93
EPA / play
1.26
#52
1.18
#48
Explosiveness
12%
#24
13%
#122
Havoc

When Nevada has the ball

Passing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#13
NEV offense
#122
EPA comparison
-0.06
#13
0.02
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#18
NEV offense
#35
EPA comparison
-0.10
#18
0.19
#35
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNM defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNM defense
#1
NEV offense
#87
Success rates
31%
#1
42%
#87
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#2
0.10
#87
EPA / play
1.46
#136
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
26%
#1
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

New Mexico
QBJames Laubstein
0 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
91.29/729
CBJoshua Barnes
1 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
52.8
Coverage
93.4
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
7
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
91.64/2969
RBKiefer Sibley
205 yds · 2 TD · 5.4 YPC
80.082/1044
LBMercury Swaim
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.0
Coverage
66.2
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
1
77.1136/1796
LBJaxton Eck
25 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
76.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
77.1138/1796
CBJahmir Torres
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
22
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.8133/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Massiah Mingo · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Mingo is nursing with a foot injury, and he is not projected to face against the Aggies on Saturday.

  • Tripp Walsh · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Walsh is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Troy Omeire · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Omeire is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Joey Olsen · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Olsen is battling with a knee ACL injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jack Layne · QBout · 2026-08-27

    Layne is laid up with an elbow injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Abraham Williams · WRout · 2026-09-20

    Williams is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Shawn Miller · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Miller is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Darrion Bowers · RBQues. · 2026-09-20

    Bowers is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against New Mexico State on Saturday.

Nevada
QBAJ Bianco
116 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
71.3145/729
DBTajean Stallworth
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.9
Coverage
52.3
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
91.7
Missed tackles
1
90.77/2969
TETrace Estes
1 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Penalties
0
89.93/1017
WRDon Henry
1 rec · 28 yds · 0 TD
82.338/2069
LBEJ Smith
56 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.3
Coverage
63.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
80.874/1796
RBHerschel Turner
234 yds · 3 TD · 6.0 YPC
77.1131/1044
Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNM
NEV
vs
Offense
91.2
#8 of 138
QB
71.3
#98 of 138
78.9
#41 of 138
RB
76.4
#61 of 138
66.9
#123 of 138
WR
69.2
#91 of 138
71.3
#55 of 138
TE
89.9
#3 of 138
72.8
#29 of 138
OL
65.0
#94 of 138
Defense
75.9
#48 of 138
DL
67.7
#126 of 138
74.8
#60 of 138
LB
74.5
#65 of 138
78.8
#6 of 138
DB
72.7
#60 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

New Mexico
opponent
Nevada
H+54.0
UTEP#170
+17.0A
H+6.7
NDSU#61
-14.8A
H+9.2
UNLV#83
-12.3A
H+15.1
AF#74
-3.0H
A+11.9
HAW#135
+1.1H
A+14.4
SJSU#123
+3.6H