AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 AM
#86Away
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
29p
#120Home
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
24p
UNM 62%38% NEV
Spread
UNM -4.8
Total
53
Moneyline
UNM-166NEV+166
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNM advantageevenNEV advantage →
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
even
UNM run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
even
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
UNM +34
NEV run
NEV backs #144
UNM +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NEV runs
Herschel Turner
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · NEV
MLB · UNM
47.0
83.1
UNM +36
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Darren Agu
LT · NEV
EDGE · UNM
47.9
77.3
UNM +29
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Austin Brawley
X · NEV
CB1 · UNM
36.8
78.7
UNM +42
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · UNM
CB1 · NEV
49.6
64.8
NEV +15
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · UNM
MLB · NEV
56.9
54.5
dead even
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Zavien Abercrombie
TE · UNM
FS · NEV
58.0
49.3
UNM +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico
opponent
Nevada
home+14.6
UTEP#133
+2.2away
home+0.4
North Dakota State#81
-11.9away
home-3.7
UNLV#70
-16.0away
home+2.7
Air Force#98
-4.6home
away-3.6
Hawai'i#90
-6.0home
away+6.5
San José State#123
+4.2home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +4.895% interval: -28.7 to 19.180% interval: -22.2 to 12.6-22+13UNM wins 62%NEV wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 32–25 NEVNEV 21–56 UNM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNEV 25–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 28–49 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 32–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 35–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 39–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 42–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEV 46–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 49–28 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 18–53 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 21–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 25–46 UNM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEV 28–42 UNM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 32–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 35–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 39–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 42–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 46–25 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 14–49 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 18–46 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 21–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 25–39 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 28–35 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 32–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEV 35–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEV 39–25 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 42–21 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 11–46 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 14–42 UNM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 18–39 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 21–35 UNM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEV 25–32 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEV 28–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEV 32–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 35–21 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 39–18 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 7–42 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 11–39 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 14–35 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 18–32 UNM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEV 21–28 UNM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEV 25–25 UNM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEV 28–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 32–18 UNM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 35–14 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 4–39 UNM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 7–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 11–32 UNM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 14–28 UNM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 18–25 UNM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 21–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEV 25–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEV 28–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 32–11 UNM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 0–35 UNM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 4–32 UNM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 7–28 UNM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 11–25 UNM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 14–21 UNM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 18–18 UNM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 21–14 UNM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 25–11 UNM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 28–7 UNM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNM +35UNM +21UNM +7NEV +7NEV +21margin →