AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PM
#107Away
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
13p
#86Home
New Mexico
0-0 · AVR 44.7
35p
CMU 7%93% UNM
Spread
UNM -22.1
Total
49
Moneyline
CMU+1371UNM-1371
Against the market
UNM +11.6line UNM -10.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CMU advantageevenUNM advantage →
CMU throw
UNM +25
CMU run
UNM +31
UNM throw
UNM QB #33UNM WR #117
even
UNM run
CMU linebackers #141
UNM +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Jaxton Eck
RB · CMU
MLB · UNM
57.2
83.1
UNM +26
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Darren Agu
LT · CMU
EDGE · UNM
61.4
77.3
UNM +16
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Austin Brawley
X · CMU
CB1 · UNM
53.7
78.7
UNM +25
when UNM throws
Troy Omeire
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · UNM
CB1 · CMU
49.6
76.0
CMU +26
over the middle
Cade Keith
vs
Tysen Campbell
TE · UNM
FS · CMU
58.0
63.1
CMU +5
when UNM runs
Kiefer Sibley
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · UNM
MLB · CMU
56.9
47.4
UNM +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777
New Mexico
LBJaxton Eckprobable
83.133/878
SAustin Brawleyprobable
78.7104/1427
LBMercury Swaim
77.884/878
QBJack Layne
72.433/308
SDrew Speech
63.2403/1427
CBFrankie Edwards III
60.4472/1427

also out — J. Olsen (TE), J. Layne (QB)

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNM +22.1MKT95% interval: -7 to 5080% interval: 3 to 40+3+40CMU wins 7%UNM wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNM 35–14 CMUUNM 32–39 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 35–35 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 39–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 42–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 46–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 49–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 53–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNM 56–14 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNM 60–11 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 28–35 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 32–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 35–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 39–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNM 42–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 46–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNM 49–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNM 53–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 56–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNM 25–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 28–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 32–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 35–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNM 39–18 CMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNM 42–14 CMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 46–11 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 49–7 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 53–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 21–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 25–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNM 28–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNM 32–18 CMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNM 35–14 CMU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesUNM 39–11 CMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNM 42–7 CMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 46–4 CMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNM 49–0 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNM 18–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 21–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNM 25–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 28–14 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 32–11 CMU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUNM 35–7 CMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNM 39–4 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNM 42–0 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UNM 14–21 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNM 18–18 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNM 21–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNM 25–11 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNM 28–7 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNM 32–4 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNM 35–0 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UNM 11–18 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNM 14–14 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNM 18–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNM 21–7 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNM 25–4 CMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNM 28–0 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalCMU +7UNM +7UNM +21UNM +35UNM +49margin →