AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PM
#63Away
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
25p
#70Home
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
33p
MEM 31%69% UNLV
Spread
UNLV -7.8
Total
58
Moneyline
MEM+221UNLV-221
Against the market
UNLV +3.3line UNLV -4.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MEM advantageevenUNLV advantage →
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
UNLV +8
MEM run
MEM +20
UNLV throw
MEM +36
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
MEM +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · UNLV
MLB · MEM
79.8
71.4
UNLV +8
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Andre Porter
LT · MEM
EDGE · UNLV
79.2
71.7
MEM +8
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · UNLV
EDGE · MEM
60.0
86.2
MEM +26
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Ian Foster
X · UNLV
CB1 · MEM
53.6
90.2
MEM +37
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · MEM
CB1 · UNLV
60.4
68.9
UNLV +9
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Khalil Foster
TE · UNLV
FS · MEM
58.4
62.7
MEM +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +7.8MKT95% interval: -24 to 3980% interval: -11 to 28-11+28MEM wins 31%UNLV wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 32–25 MEMUNLV 28–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 32–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 35–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 39–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 42–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 46–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 49–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNLV 53–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 56–21 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 25–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 28–42 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 32–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 35–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 39–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 42–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 46–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 49–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 53–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 21–42 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 25–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 28–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNLV 39–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 42–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 46–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 49–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 18–39 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 21–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 25–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 28–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUNLV 35–21 MEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNLV 39–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 42–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 46–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 14–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 18–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 21–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 25–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNLV 28–21 MEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNLV 32–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–14 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 39–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 42–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 11–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 14–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 18–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNLV 21–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 25–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 28–14 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 32–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 35–7 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 39–4 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 7–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 11–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 14–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 18–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 21–14 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 25–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 28–7 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 32–4 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 35–0 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMEM +21MEM +7UNLV +7UNLV +21UNLV +35margin →