AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 7:30 PM
#68Away
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
27p
#70Home
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
31p
CAL 37%63% UNLV
Spread
UNLV -4.7
Total
58
Moneyline
CAL+168UNLV-168
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CAL advantageevenUNLV advantage →
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
CAL +27
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
CAL +9
UNLV throw
CAL coverage #52CAL pass rush #151
UNLV +7
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · UNLV
MLB · CAL
79.8
69.7
UNLV +10
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · CAL
CB1 · UNLV
78.7
68.9
CAL +10
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Cam Sidney
X · UNLV
CB1 · CAL
53.6
78.5
CAL +25
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Mark Iheanachor
RB · CAL
MLB · UNLV
69.4
54.5
CAL +15
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Khamani Hudson
TE · UNLV
FS · CAL
58.4
61.9
CAL +3
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Mumu Bin-Wahad
TE · CAL
FS · UNLV
63.0
55.0
CAL +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +4.795% interval: -19.2 to 28.680% interval: -12.7 to 22.1-13+22CAL wins 37%UNLV wins 63%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 32–25 CALUNLV 28–49 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 32–46 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 35–42 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–39 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 42–35 CAL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 46–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 49–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 53–25 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 56–21 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 25–46 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 28–42 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 32–39 CAL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 35–35 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNLV 39–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 42–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNLV 46–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNLV 49–21 CAL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 53–18 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 21–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 25–39 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 28–35 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNLV 32–32 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 35–28 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNLV 39–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 42–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 46–18 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 49–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 18–39 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 21–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNLV 25–32 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNLV 28–28 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNLV 32–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNLV 35–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 42–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 46–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 14–35 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 18–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 21–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 25–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 28–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 32–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNLV 35–14 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 42–7 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 11–32 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 14–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 18–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 21–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 25–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNLV 28–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 32–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 35–7 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 7–28 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 11–25 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 14–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNLV 18–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 21–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 25–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 28–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 32–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 35–0 CAL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalCAL +21CAL +7UNLV +7UNLV +21UNLV +35margin →