CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
#89Away
California
2-2 · AVR 56.2
31
Final
#84Home
UNLV
2-2 · AVR 56.8
39
Forecast win probability
CAL 47.7%52.3% UNLV
Projected margin
UNLV by 0.7
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
CAL 19 to UNLV 21
Win probability
UNLV 52.3%
FinalCAL 31 · UNLV 39model had +0.7, off by 7.3

Current team profiles

California
UNLV

When California has the ball

Passing

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#92
UNLV defense
#38
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.06
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#123
UNLV defense
#68
EPA comparison
-0.07
#123
0.04
#68
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#113
UNLV defense
#50
Success rates
39%
#113
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#119
0.02
#50
EPA / play
1.28
#42
1.24
#80
Explosiveness
17%
#114
17%
#49
Havoc

When UNLV has the ball

Passing

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#26
UNLV offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.01
#26
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNLV offense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#122
UNLV offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.19
#122
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#36
UNLV offense
#126
Success rates
37%
#36
37%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#70
0.06
#104
EPA / play
1.40
#128
1.26
#49
Explosiveness
14%
#97
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

UNLV
QBJackson Arnold
1068 yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
78.978/729
DBDenver Harris
18 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.6
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
158
Passer rating allowed
104.5
Missed tackles
4
78.094/2969
TEJae Beasley II
2 rec · 31 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.7
Run blocking
78.5
Penalties
1
75.544/1017
DBAvery Helm
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
71.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
87.5
Missed tackles
0
72.1319/2969
WRTaz Reddicks
14 rec · 272 yds · 2 TD
71.8200/2069
RBKamran Williams
15 yds · 0 TD · 5.0 YPC
71.0287/1044
Availability reports · 2
  • Taeshaun Lyons · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lyons is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

  • DeAngelo Irvin Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Irvin Jr. is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CAL
UNLV
vs
Offense
76.3
#77 of 138
QB
78.9
#61 of 138
73.2
#93 of 138
RB
70.9
#112 of 138
66.0
#128 of 138
WR
68.3
#101 of 138
57.9
#132 of 138
TE
75.5
#35 of 138
67.0
#78 of 138
OL
61.0
#128 of 138
Defense
70.3
#102 of 138
DL
70.2
#105 of 138
70.6
#99 of 138
LB
64.2
#135 of 138
77.1
#15 of 138
DB
70.0
#98 of 138
Common opponents