AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sun Nov 1 · 2:30 AM
#134Away
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
17p
#70Home
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
39p
NIU 7%93% UNLV
Spread
UNLV -21.8
Total
55
Moneyline
NIU+1325UNLV-1325
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NIU advantageevenUNLV advantage →
NIU throw
NIU protection #66
UNLV +27
NIU run
NIU +7
UNLV throw
UNLV +31
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +53

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · NIU
CB1 · UNLV
54.9
68.9
UNLV +14
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Andre Porter
LT · NIU
EDGE · UNLV
45.0
71.7
UNLV +27
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · UNLV
CB1 · NIU
53.6
59.3
NIU +6
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Mark Iheanachor
RB · NIU
MLB · UNLV
56.7
54.5
dead even
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Broderick Windham
RB · UNLV
MLB · NIU
79.8
21.4
UNLV +58
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Fawzy Omotoso
LT · UNLV
EDGE · NIU
60.0
40.7
UNLV +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northern Illinois
opponent
UNLV
away-17.8
North Dakota State#81
+6.6home
away-9.0
Wyoming#119
+15.3home
home-3.3
Nevada#120
+16.0home
away-6.6
San José State#123
+12.7away
home-10.4
Air Force#98
+3.9away
home-11.8
Hawai'i#90
-7.7away

Projected margin

80% between 5 and 39
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +21.895% interval: -2.1 to 45.780% interval: 4.5 to 39.2+5+39NIU wins 7%UNLV wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 39–18 NIUUNLV 35–42 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 39–39 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 42–35 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 46–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 49–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 53–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 56–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 60–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 63–14 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 32–39 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 35–35 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 39–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 42–28 NIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNLV 46–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNLV 49–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 53–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 56–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 60–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 28–35 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 32–32 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 35–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 39–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNLV 42–21 NIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNLV 46–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 49–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 53–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 56–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 25–32 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 28–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 32–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 35–21 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 39–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNLV 42–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 46–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 49–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 53–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 21–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 25–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 28–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNLV 39–11 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 42–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 46–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 49–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 18–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 21–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 25–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 28–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 32–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNLV 39–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 42–0 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UNLV 14–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 18–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 21–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 25–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 28–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 32–4 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 35–0 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalNIU +7UNLV +7UNLV +21UNLV +35UNLV +49margin →