CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 10:30 PM ET
#145Away
Northern Illinois
0-5 · AVR 45.9
17p
#83Home
UNLV
4-2 · AVR 57.5
38p
Forecast win probability
NIU 10.2%89.8% UNLV
Projected margin
UNLV by 20.1
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
UNLV 2 to UNLV 39
Win probability
UNLV 89.8%

Current team profiles

Northern Illinois
UNLV

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Passing

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#123
UNLV defense
#38
EPA comparison
0.00
#123
0.06
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#137
UNLV defense
#68
EPA comparison
-0.13
#137
0.04
#68
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#125
UNLV defense
#50
Success rates
37%
#125
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#135
0.02
#50
EPA / play
1.14
#110
1.24
#80
Explosiveness
17%
#112
17%
#49
Havoc

When UNLV has the ball

Passing

NIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#89
UNLV offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNLV offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#131
UNLV offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.23
#131
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNLV offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#131
UNLV offense
#126
Success rates
49%
#131
37%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#121
0.06
#104
EPA / play
1.20
#54
1.26
#49
Explosiveness
10%
#136
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

Northern Illinois
QBBrady Davidson
27 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
69.3166/729
DBAaron Warren
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
82.6
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
80.6
Missed tackles
3
82.839/2969
LBJashawn Nelson
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
74.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.195/1796
RBJaidaun Cranford
59 yds · 0 TD · 7.4 YPC
74.6185/1044
CBYassine Falke
13 tkl · 0 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.1
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
30.7
Missed tackles
3
70.7404/2969
WRDeAree Rogers
31 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
69.9273/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Glen Weber · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Weber is battling with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Da'sean Howard · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Howard is suffering with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

UNLV
QBJackson Arnold
1068 yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
78.978/729
DBDenver Harris
18 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.6
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
158
Passer rating allowed
104.5
Missed tackles
4
78.094/2969
TEJae Beasley II
2 rec · 31 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.7
Run blocking
78.5
Penalties
1
75.544/1017
DBAvery Helm
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
71.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
87.5
Missed tackles
0
72.1319/2969
WRTaz Reddicks
14 rec · 272 yds · 2 TD
71.8200/2069
RBKamran Williams
15 yds · 0 TD · 5.0 YPC
71.0287/1044
Availability reports · 2
  • Taeshaun Lyons · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lyons is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

  • DeAngelo Irvin Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Irvin Jr. is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NIU
UNLV
vs
Offense
69.3
#104 of 138
QB
78.9
#61 of 138
72.5
#103 of 138
RB
70.9
#112 of 138
67.4
#117 of 138
WR
68.3
#101 of 138
65.0
#90 of 138
TE
75.5
#35 of 138
64.8
#97 of 138
OL
61.0
#128 of 138
Defense
64.5
#137 of 138
DL
70.2
#105 of 138
69.3
#109 of 138
LB
64.2
#135 of 138
69.9
#100 of 138
DB
70.0
#98 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Northern Illinois
opponent
UNLV
A-22.6
NDSU#61
+6.0H
H-21.0
AF#74
+3.3A
A-10.0
WYO#126
+12.8H
H-6.7
HAW#135
+15.0A
A-9.6
SJSU#123
+7.9A
H-5.2
NEV#109
+12.3H