AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:45 PM
#70Away
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
33p
#80Home
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
32p
UNLV 52%48% UNT
Spread
UNLV -0.8
Total
65
Moneyline
UNLV-109UNT+109
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNLV advantageevenUNT advantage →
UNLV throw
even
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +15
UNT throw
UNT +12
UNT run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · UNLV
MLB · UNT
79.8
58.9
UNLV +21
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · UNLV
EDGE · UNT
60.0
70.7
UNT +11
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · UNLV
CB1 · UNT
53.6
73.0
UNT +19
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · UNT
CB1 · UNLV
56.0
68.9
UNLV +13
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
Andre Porter
LT · UNT
EDGE · UNLV
42.5
71.7
UNLV +29
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Julian Knox Sr.
TE · UNLV
FS · UNT
58.4
52.4
UNLV +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +0.895% interval: -24.7 to 23.180% interval: -18.2 to 16.6-18+17UNLV wins 52%UNT wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNT 32–32 UNLVUNT 28–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 32–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 35–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 39–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 42–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 46–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 49–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 53–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 56–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 25–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 28–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 32–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 35–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 39–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 42–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNT 46–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 49–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 53–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 21–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 25–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 28–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 32–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 35–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNT 39–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNT 42–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 46–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 49–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 18–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 21–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 25–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 28–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNT 32–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNT 35–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 39–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 42–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 46–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 14–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 18–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 21–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 25–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 28–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNT 32–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 35–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 39–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 42–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 11–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 14–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 18–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 21–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 25–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 28–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 32–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 35–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 39–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 7–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 11–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 14–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 18–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 21–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 25–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 28–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 32–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 35–7 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalUNLV +28UNLV +14PKUNT +14UNT +28margin →