AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#70Away
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
34p
#115Home
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
24p
UNLV 75%25% AKR
Spread
UNLV -9.9
Total
59
Moneyline
UNLV-298AKR+298
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNLV advantageevenAKR advantage →
UNLV throw
UNLV +9
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +41
AKR throw
UNLV +8
AKR run
AKR +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Cyrus Durham
LT · UNLV
EDGE · AKR
60.0
81.4
AKR +21
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Cam Macon
RB · UNLV
MLB · AKR
79.8
43.9
UNLV +36
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · AKR
CB1 · UNLV
54.0
68.9
UNLV +15
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Zach Hobson
X · UNLV
CB1 · AKR
53.6
69.2
AKR +16
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Mark Iheanachor
RB · AKR
MLB · UNLV
62.7
54.5
AKR +8
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Rodrick Hunter
TE · UNLV
FS · AKR
58.4
55.4
UNLV +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +9.995% interval: -33.8 to 1480% interval: -27.3 to 7.5-27+8UNLV wins 75%AKR wins 25%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 32–25 AKRAKR 21–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 25–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAKR 28–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAKR 32–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 35–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 39–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 42–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 46–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 49–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 18–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 21–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 25–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAKR 28–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 32–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 35–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 39–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 42–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 46–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 14–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 18–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 21–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 25–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 28–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAKR 32–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAKR 35–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 39–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 42–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 11–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 14–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 18–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 21–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 25–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAKR 28–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAKR 32–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 35–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 39–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 7–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 11–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 14–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 18–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 21–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 25–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 28–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 32–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 35–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 4–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 7–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 11–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 14–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 18–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 21–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAKR 25–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 28–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 32–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 0–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAKR 4–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 7–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 11–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 14–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 18–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 21–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 25–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 28–7 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNLV +35UNLV +21UNLV +7AKR +7AKR +21margin →