AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sun Nov 8 · 3:30 AM
#119Away
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
21p
#70Home
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
36p
WYO 15%85% UNLV
Spread
UNLV -15.3
Total
57
Moneyline
WYO+581UNLV-581
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WYO advantageevenUNLV advantage →
WYO throw
UNLV +37
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
UNLV +5
UNLV throw
WYO coverage #68WYO pass rush #138
UNLV +9
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +42

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · UNLV
MLB · WYO
79.8
65.7
UNLV +14
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Ian Bell
X · UNLV
CB1 · WYO
53.6
77.1
WYO +23
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Jaden DaCosta
TE · UNLV
FS · WYO
58.4
57.2
dead even
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Mark Iheanachor
RB · WYO
MLB · UNLV
57.2
54.5
dead even
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · WYO
CB1 · UNLV
41.3
68.9
UNLV +28
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Jayden Williams
LT · UNLV
EDGE · WYO
60.0
43.0
UNLV +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wyoming
opponent
UNLV
away-11.2
North Dakota State#81
+6.6home
home+9.0
Northern Illinois#134
+21.8home
away-0.1
San José State#123
+12.7away
home-3.9
Air Force#98
+3.9away
home-4.1
New Mexico#86
+3.7away
home-5.2
Hawai'i#90
-7.7away

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +15.395% interval: -8.6 to 39.280% interval: -2.1 to 32.7-2+33WYO wins 15%UNLV wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 35–21 WYOUNLV 32–46 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 35–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 42–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 46–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 49–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 53–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNLV 56–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 60–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 28–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 32–39 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNLV 39–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNLV 42–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 46–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 49–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 53–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 56–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 25–39 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 28–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNLV 39–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNLV 42–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNLV 46–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 49–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 53–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 21–35 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 25–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 28–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 35–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNLV 39–18 WYO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNLV 42–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 46–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 49–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 18–32 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 21–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNLV 25–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 28–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 32–18 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNLV 35–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNLV 39–11 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNLV 42–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNLV 46–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNLV 14–28 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNLV 18–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNLV 21–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNLV 25–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNLV 28–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNLV 32–11 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNLV 35–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNLV 39–4 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNLV 42–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNLV 11–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNLV 14–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNLV 18–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNLV 21–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNLV 25–11 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNLV 28–7 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNLV 32–4 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNLV 35–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWYO +14PKUNLV +14UNLV +28UNLV +42margin →