AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 7:30 PM
#70Away
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
35p
#98Home
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
31p
UNLV 60%40% AF
Spread
UNLV -3.9
Total
65
Moneyline
UNLV-152AF+152
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNLV advantageevenAF advantage →
UNLV throw
UNLV +38
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +39
AF throw
AF +38
AF run
AF +52

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Andre Porter
LT · AF
EDGE · UNLV
98.9
71.7
AF +27
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · UNLV
MLB · AF
79.8
62.5
UNLV +17
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · AF
CB1 · UNLV
59.7
68.9
UNLV +9
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Mark Iheanachor
RB · AF
MLB · UNLV
68.8
54.5
AF +14
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Jayden Oquendo
LT · UNLV
EDGE · AF
60.0
53.4
UNLV +7
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Max Mustell
X · UNLV
CB1 · AF
53.6
53.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UNLV
opponent
Air Force
home+21.8
Northern Illinois#134
+10.4away
home+15.3
Wyoming#119
+3.9away
home+16.0
Nevada#120
+4.6away
away+3.7
New Mexico#86
-2.7away
home+6.6
North Dakota State#81
+0.2home
away+12.7
San José State#123
+11.3home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +3.995% interval: -27.8 to 2080% interval: -21.3 to 13.5-21+14UNLV wins 60%AF wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 35–28 AFAF 25–60 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 28–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 32–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 35–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 39–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 42–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 46–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 49–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 53–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 21–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 25–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 28–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 32–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 35–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAF 39–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAF 42–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 46–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAF 49–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 18–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 21–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 25–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAF 28–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 32–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 35–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 39–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 42–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 46–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 14–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 18–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 21–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAF 25–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 28–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 32–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 35–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 39–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 42–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 11–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 14–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 18–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 21–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 25–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 28–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 32–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 35–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 39–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 7–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 11–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 14–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 18–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 21–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 25–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 28–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 32–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 35–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 4–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesAF 7–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 11–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 14–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 18–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 21–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 25–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 28–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 32–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalUNLV +35UNLV +21UNLV +7AF +7AF +21margin →