CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET
Away
UNLV
4-2
31p
Home
Air Force
4-1
28p
Forecast win probability
UNLV 58.6%41.4% AF
Projected margin
UNLV by 3.3
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
UNLV 22 to AF 15
Win probability
UNLV 58.6%

Current team profiles

UNLV
Air Force

When UNLV has the ball

Passing

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNLV offense
#101
AF defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNLV offense
#88
AF defense
#47
EPA comparison
0.06
#88
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNLV offense
#126
AF defense
#29
Success rates
37%
#126
35%
#29
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#104
-0.02
#37
EPA / play
1.26
#49
1.29
#101
Explosiveness
16%
#88
14%
#97
Havoc

When Air Force has the ball

Passing

UNLV defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNLV defense
#38
AF offense
#132
EPA comparison
0.06
#38
-0.07
#132
Pass EPA

Rushing

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNLV defense
#68
AF offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.04
#68
0.29
#6
Rush EPA

Drive success

AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNLV defense
#50
AF offense
#25
Success rates
38%
#50
49%
#25
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#50
0.22
#39
EPA / play
1.24
#80
1.03
#136
Explosiveness
17%
#49
6%
#1
Havoc

Current key players

UNLV
QBJackson Arnold
1068 yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
78.978/729
DBDenver Harris
18 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.6
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
158
Passer rating allowed
104.5
Missed tackles
4
78.094/2969
TEJae Beasley II
2 rec · 31 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.7
Run blocking
78.5
Penalties
1
75.544/1017
DBAvery Helm
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
71.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
35
Passer rating allowed
87.5
Missed tackles
0
72.1319/2969
WRTaz Reddicks
14 rec · 272 yds · 2 TD
71.8200/2069
RBKamran Williams
15 yds · 0 TD · 5.0 YPC
71.0287/1044
Availability reports · 2
  • Taeshaun Lyons · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lyons is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

  • DeAngelo Irvin Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Irvin Jr. is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Falcons on Sunday, October 17th.

Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
296 yds · 1 TD · 4 INT
81.862/729
LBBlake Fletcher
44 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.3
Coverage
83.1
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
90.014/1796
DBMax Mustell
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
89.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
14
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
5
87.417/2969
WRMason Hayes
12 rush yds · 0 TD · 1 car
77.579/2069
RBRocco Conti
187 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 YPC
72.3251/1044
LBIsaac Hubert
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
64.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
83
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
71.3320/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Liam Szarka · QBout · 2026-10-05

    Szarka is battling with a lower leg injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Griffin Stalfort · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stalfort is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's game against Rebels , October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNLV
AF
vs
Offense
78.9
#61 of 138
QB
81.8
#53 of 138
70.9
#112 of 138
RB
72.0
#106 of 138
68.3
#101 of 138
WR
71.2
#73 of 138
75.5
#35 of 138
TE
68.6
#74 of 138
61.0
#128 of 138
OL
74.7
#18 of 138
Defense
70.2
#105 of 138
DL
69.6
#112 of 138
64.2
#135 of 138
LB
76.9
#45 of 138
70.0
#98 of 138
DB
69.0
#111 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UNLV
opponent
Air Force
H+6.0
NDSU#61
-6.0H
H+12.8
WYO#126
+1.5A
H+12.3
NEV#109
+3.0A
A-9.2
UNM#33
-15.1A
H+20.1
NIU#145
+21.0A
A+7.9
SJSU#123
+7.2H