AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sun Nov 22 · 1:00 AM
#70Away
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
36p
#123Home
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
24p
UNLV 81%19% SJSU
Spread
UNLV -12.7
Total
60
Moneyline
UNLV-417SJSU+417
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNLV advantageevenSJSU advantage →
UNLV throw
SJSU pass rush #78
UNLV +20
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +20
SJSU throw
UNLV +16
SJSU run
UNLV +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · UNLV
MLB · SJSU
79.8
58.0
UNLV +22
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · UNLV
EDGE · SJSU
60.0
73.0
SJSU +13
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · SJSU
CB1 · UNLV
52.8
68.9
UNLV +16
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · UNLV
CB1 · SJSU
53.6
53.8
dead even
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Mark Iheanachor
RB · SJSU
MLB · UNLV
49.8
54.5
UNLV +5
over the middle
Matt Byrnes
vs
Runye Norton
TE · UNLV
FS · SJSU
58.4
36.7
UNLV +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UNLV
opponent
San José State
home+16.0
Nevada#120
-4.2away
away+3.9
Air Force#98
-11.3away
home+21.8
Northern Illinois#134
+6.6home
home+15.3
Wyoming#119
+0.1home
home+6.6
North Dakota State#81
-8.6home
away+3.7
New Mexico#86
-6.5home
away-7.7
Hawai'i#90
-12.7away

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNLV +12.795% interval: -36.6 to 11.280% interval: -30.1 to 4.7-30+5UNLV wins 81%SJSU wins 19%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNLV 39–25 SJSUSJSU 21–63 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 25–60 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 28–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSJSU 32–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSJSU 35–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 39–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 42–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 46–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 49–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 18–60 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 21–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 25–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSJSU 28–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSJSU 32–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 35–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSJSU 39–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 42–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 46–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSJSU 14–56 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 18–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSJSU 25–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 28–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSJSU 32–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 35–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 39–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 42–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 11–53 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 14–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 18–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 21–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSJSU 25–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSJSU 28–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSJSU 32–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 35–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 39–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 7–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 11–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 14–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSJSU 18–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 21–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSJSU 25–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSJSU 28–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 32–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSJSU 35–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 4–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSJSU 7–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSJSU 11–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 14–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSJSU 18–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSJSU 21–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSJSU 25–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 28–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSJSU 32–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSJSU 0–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSJSU 4–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSJSU 7–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSJSU 11–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSJSU 14–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSJSU 18–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSJSU 21–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSJSU 25–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSJSU 28–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalUNLV +42UNLV +28UNLV +14PKSJSU +14margin →