AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PM
Island Showdown Trophy
#70Away
UNLV
0-0 · AVR 48.6
25p
#90Home
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
33p
UNLV 29%71% HAW
Spread
HAW -7.7
Total
59
Moneyline
UNLV+249HAW-249
Against the market
HAW +10.7line UNLV -3.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNLV advantageevenHAW advantage →
UNLV throw
even
UNLV run
UNLV line #81UNLV backs #27
UNLV +24
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
HAW +12
HAW run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNLV runs
Jai'Den Thomas
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · UNLV
MLB · HAW
79.8
56.5
UNLV +23
when UNLV throws
Kayden McGee
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · UNLV
CB1 · HAW
53.6
80.9
HAW +27
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Quandarius Keyes
X · HAW
CB1 · UNLV
57.9
68.9
UNLV +11
off the edge· hunting Arnold
Griffin Scroggs
vs
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina
LT · UNLV
EDGE · HAW
60.0
65.7
HAW +6
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Andre Porter
LT · HAW
EDGE · UNLV
44.1
71.7
UNLV +28
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Mark Iheanachor
RB · HAW
MLB · UNLV
61.2
54.5
HAW +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UNLV
RBJai'Den Thomas
79.823/514
DBQuandarius Keyes
68.9264/1427
DBTre Fulton
61.6439/1427
TEMatt Byrnes
58.466/287
QBJackson Arnold
56.883/308
DBTony-Louis Nkuba
56.2586/1427

also out — Cohen Fuller (DL)

Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UNLV
opponent
Hawai'i
home+15.3
Wyoming#119
+5.2away
home+21.8
Northern Illinois#134
+11.8away
home+16.0
Nevada#120
+6.0away
home+6.6
North Dakota State#81
+1.5home
away+3.7
New Mexico#86
+3.6home
away+12.7
San José State#123
+12.7home

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +7.7MKT95% interval: -21 to 3880% interval: -10 to 28-10+28UNLV wins 29%HAW wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 32–25 UNLVHAW 28–49 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 32–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 35–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 39–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 42–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHAW 46–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 49–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 53–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 56–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 25–46 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 28–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 32–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 35–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 39–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 42–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 46–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 49–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 53–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 21–42 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 25–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 28–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 32–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 35–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesHAW 39–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 42–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 46–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 49–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 18–39 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 21–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 25–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 28–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 32–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesHAW 35–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 39–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 42–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 46–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 14–35 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 18–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 21–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 25–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 28–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 32–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHAW 35–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 39–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 42–7 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 11–32 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 14–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 18–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHAW 21–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 25–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 28–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHAW 32–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 35–7 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 39–4 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 7–28 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 11–25 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 14–21 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 18–18 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 21–14 UNLV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 25–11 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 28–7 UNLV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 32–4 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 35–0 UNLV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNLV +21UNLV +7HAW +7HAW +21HAW +35margin →