AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#107Away
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
29p
#136Home
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
23p
CMU 66%34% BALL
Spread
CMU -5.9
Total
53
Moneyline
CMU-196BALL+196
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CMU advantageevenBALL advantage →
CMU throw
CMU +23
CMU run
CMU +28
BALL throw
CMU +36
BALL run
CMU linebackers #141
CMU +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · BALL
CB1 · CMU
47.0
76.0
CMU +29
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
Jared Badie
RB · CMU
MLB · BALL
57.2
60.1
dead even
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · CMU
CB1 · BALL
53.7
55.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Maverick Gracio
LT · CMU
EDGE · BALL
61.4
47.5
CMU +14
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · BALL
EDGE · CMU
12.8
85.9
CMU +73
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · BALL
MLB · CMU
49.3
47.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Central Michigan
opponent
Ball State
away-6.1
Ohio#101
-14.5away
home-3.7
Sacramento State#111
-12.1home
away-0.4
Buffalo#116
-3.8home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCMU +5.995% interval: -30.5 to 18.780% interval: -23.8 to 12-24+12CMU wins 66%BALL wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CMU 32–25 BALLBALL 21–56 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 25–53 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 28–49 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 32–46 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBALL 35–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 39–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBALL 42–35 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBALL 46–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 49–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 18–53 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 21–49 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 25–46 CMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 28–42 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBALL 32–39 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBALL 35–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 39–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBALL 42–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 46–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 14–49 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 18–46 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 21–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBALL 25–39 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 28–35 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 32–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBALL 35–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBALL 39–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 42–21 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 11–46 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 14–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 18–39 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 21–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBALL 25–32 CMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 28–28 CMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBALL 32–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 35–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBALL 39–18 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 7–42 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 11–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 14–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 18–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBALL 21–28 CMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 25–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBALL 28–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 32–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBALL 35–14 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 4–39 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 7–35 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 11–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBALL 14–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 18–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 21–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBALL 25–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBALL 28–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 32–11 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 0–35 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 4–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 7–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 11–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBALL 14–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBALL 18–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 21–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBALL 25–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 28–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalCMU +35CMU +21CMU +7BALL +7BALL +21margin →