AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#111Away
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
27p
#90Home
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
29p
SAC 44%56% HAW
Spread
HAW -2.1
Total
56
Moneyline
SAC+126HAW-126
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SAC advantageevenHAW advantage →
SAC throw
HAW +43
SAC run
HAW +24
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
HAW +40
HAW run
HAW +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · SAC
CB1 · HAW
38.4
80.9
HAW +43
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · SAC
MLB · HAW
46.2
56.5
HAW +10
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · HAW
EDGE · SAC
44.1
52.5
SAC +8
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · HAW
CB1 · SAC
57.9
33.6
HAW +24
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · HAW
MLB · SAC
61.2
28.6
HAW +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +2.195% interval: -22.5 to 26.780% interval: -15.8 to 20-16+20SAC wins 44%HAW wins 56%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 28–28 SACHAW 25–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 28–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 32–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 35–42 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 39–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 42–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 46–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 49–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 53–25 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 21–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 25–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 28–42 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHAW 32–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 35–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 39–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 42–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 46–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 49–21 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 18–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 21–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 25–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 28–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 32–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 35–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 39–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 42–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 46–18 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 14–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 18–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 21–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 25–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 28–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHAW 32–25 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 35–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHAW 39–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHAW 42–14 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 11–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 14–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 18–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 21–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 25–25 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 28–21 SAC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 32–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 35–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 39–11 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 7–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 11–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 14–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHAW 18–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 21–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 25–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 28–14 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 32–11 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 35–7 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 4–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 7–28 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 11–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 14–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 18–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 21–14 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 25–11 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 28–7 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 32–4 SAC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalSAC +28SAC +14PKHAW +14HAW +28margin →