AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#93Away
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
26p
#76Home
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
32p
USM 34%66% ODU
Spread
ODU -6.2
Total
58
Moneyline
USM+193ODU-193
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USM advantageevenODU advantage →
USM throw
ODU +55
USM run
ODU +21
ODU throw
USM +26
ODU run
ODU +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · ODU
CB1 · USM
53.6
95.9
USM +42
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Zion Frink
X · USM
CB1 · ODU
52.8
89.5
ODU +37
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · ODU
MLB · USM
64.7
70.3
USM +6
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · USM
MLB · ODU
52.7
79.2
ODU +26
over the middle
Leon Haughton Jr.
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · ODU
FS · USM
39.3
60.1
USM +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Southern Miss
opponent
Old Dominion
away-2.7
Louisiana Tech#94
+1.0away
home-6.1
James Madison#55
-2.5home
home-2.8
UConn#72
-4.2away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +6.295% interval: -18.4 to 30.780% interval: -11.7 to 24-12+24USM wins 34%ODU wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ODU 32–25 USMODU 28–49 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 32–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 35–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 39–39 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 42–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 46–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 49–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 53–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 56–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 25–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 28–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesODU 32–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 35–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 39–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesODU 42–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 46–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 49–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 53–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 21–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 25–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesODU 28–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesODU 32–32 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesODU 35–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 39–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesODU 42–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 46–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesODU 49–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 18–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 21–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesODU 25–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesODU 28–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesODU 32–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesODU 35–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesODU 39–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 42–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesODU 46–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 14–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 18–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 21–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesODU 25–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesODU 28–21 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesODU 32–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 35–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 39–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 42–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 11–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 14–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 18–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesODU 21–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 25–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesODU 28–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 32–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 35–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 39–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 7–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesODU 11–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 14–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 18–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 21–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 25–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesODU 28–7 USM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 32–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 35–0 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSM +21USM +7ODU +7ODU +21ODU +35margin →