CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
USM 40.7%59.3% ODU
Projected margin
ODU by 3.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
USM 15 to ODU 22
Win probability
ODU 59.3%

Current team profiles

Southern Miss
Old Dominion

When Southern Miss has the ball

Passing

ODU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#111
ODU defense
#55
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
0.10
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

ODU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#30
ODU defense
#14
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
-0.12
#14
Rush EPA

Drive success

ODU defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#62
ODU defense
#22
Success rates
44%
#62
35%
#22
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#95
-0.05
#23
EPA / play
1.19
#94
1.20
#60
Explosiveness
15%
#73
18%
#34
Havoc

When Old Dominion has the ball

Passing

USM defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#103
ODU offense
#138
EPA comparison
0.27
#103
-0.19
#138
Pass EPA

Rushing

Same rank
USM defense
#134
ODU offense
#134
EPA comparison
0.26
#134
-0.11
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

USM defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#110
ODU offense
#138
Success rates
45%
#110
31%
#138
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#122
-0.15
#137
EPA / play
1.24
#78
1.20
#90
Explosiveness
12%
#129
25%
#138
Havoc

Current key players

Southern Miss
QBEthan Hampton
419 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
69.3163/729
LBMelvin Spriggs
10 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.4
Coverage
62.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
86.231/1796
WRMJ Johnson
9 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
83.631/2069
DBKobi Albert
13 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
52
Passer rating allowed
16.7
Missed tackles
0
83.334/2969
DBJonah Martinez
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
89.8
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
13.5
Missed tackles
2
83.136/2969
DBLaquan Robinson
20 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
2
80.160/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Ethan Hampton · QBout · 2026-09-25

    Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Grant Page · WRout · 2026-09-22

    Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Jaylen Himes · WRout · 2026-09-25

    Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period.

Old Dominion
QBQuinn Henicle
467 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
57.6324/729
LBJackson Forrest
30 tkl · 6.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.6
Coverage
88.5
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
36
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
1
91.85/1796
LBKoa Naotala
31 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.0
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
84.939/1796
SLucas Struck
35 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.9
Coverage
80.8
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
122
Passer rating allowed
98.4
Missed tackles
4
80.854/2969
SAsher Horn
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
73.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
73.9239/2969
CBShaq Leaks
6 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.9
Coverage
69.3
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
47
Passer rating allowed
97.4
Missed tackles
1
73.1274/2969
Position units

Position-unit comparison

USM
ODU
vs
Offense
69.3
#103 of 138
QB
57.6
#136 of 138
71.1
#110 of 138
RB
67.3
#133 of 138
74.2
#40 of 138
WR
60.7
#137 of 138
70.8
#58 of 138
TE
67.1
#80 of 138
72.9
#28 of 138
OL
59.7
#132 of 138
Defense
70.4
#100 of 138
DL
69.9
#108 of 138
75.7
#55 of 138
LB
85.2
#4 of 138
76.2
#23 of 138
DB
73.4
#51 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Southern Miss
opponent
Old Dominion
H-28.0
CONN#95
-6.7A
H-14.9
JMU#51
-26.0H
A-4.5
LT#87
-3.5A