AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#4Away
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
41p
#71Home
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
17p
ND 95%5% SYR
Spread
ND -24.5
Total
58
Moneyline
ND-1949SYR+1949
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ND advantageevenSYR advantage →
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +29
ND run
SYR +23
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
ND +40
SYR run
ND +78

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Leonard Moore
X · SYR
CB1 · ND
54.3
101.6
ND +47
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Nazir Ward
X · ND
CB1 · SYR
74.7
68.7
ND +6
over the middle
Noah Meyers
vs
Luke Talich
TE · SYR
FS · ND
53.0
86.9
ND +34
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · ND
MLB · SYR
56.9
80.0
SYR +23
when SYR runs
Malachi Coleman
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · SYR
MLB · ND
42.7
86.5
ND +44
off the edge· hunting Odom
Joe Cruz
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · SYR
EDGE · ND
34.8
88.4
ND +54

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Notre Dame
opponent
Syracuse
home+29.8
Boston College#79
-2.2away
away+20.7
North Carolina#61
-6.3away
home+12.3
SMU#18
-14.7home

Projected margin

80% between -42 and -7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +24.595% interval: -49.1 to 0.180% interval: -42.4 to -6.6-42-7ND wins 95%SYR wins 5%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 42–14 SYRSYR 14–63 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 18–60 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 21–56 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 25–53 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 28–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 32–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 35–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 39–39 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 42–35 ND neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSYR 11–60 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 14–56 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 18–53 ND neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 21–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 25–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 28–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 32–39 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 35–35 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 39–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 7–56 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 11–53 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 14–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 18–46 ND neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSYR 21–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSYR 25–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 28–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 32–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 35–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 4–53 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 7–49 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 11–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 14–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSYR 18–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSYR 21–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 25–32 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 28–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 32–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 0–49 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 4–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 7–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 11–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSYR 14–35 ND neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSYR 18–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 21–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 25–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 28–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SYR 0–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 4–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 7–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 11–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 14–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 18–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 21–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 25–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)SYR 0–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 4–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 7–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 11–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSYR 14–21 ND neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSYR 18–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSYR 21–14 ND neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalND +49ND +35ND +21ND +7SYR +7margin →