AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Golden Boot
#20Away
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
31p
#40Home
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
26p
LSU 63%37% ARK
Spread
LSU -4.8
Total
56
Moneyline
LSU-172ARK+172
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LSU advantageevenARK advantage →
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
even
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
ARK +20
ARK throw
LSU +37
ARK run
LSU +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · ARK
FS · LSU
78.6
79.0
dead even
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Joker Johnson
X · LSU
CB1 · ARK
86.3
70.0
LSU +16
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
DJ Pickett
X · ARK
CB1 · LSU
56.7
93.7
LSU +37
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Bryant Williams
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · ARK
EDGE · LSU
45.4
99.9
LSU +55
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · LSU
MLB · ARK
61.0
77.0
ARK +16
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · ARK
MLB · LSU
68.8
69.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
LSU
opponent
Arkansas
home-6.7
Texas A&M#8
-19.0away
home-5.7
Texas#9
-18.0away
away+1.6
Auburn#31
-5.6away
away-6.5
Tennessee#17
-8.8home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLSU +4.895% interval: -29.4 to 19.880% interval: -22.7 to 13.1-23+13LSU wins 63%ARK wins 37%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LSU 32–25 ARKARK 21–56 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 25–53 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 28–49 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARK 32–46 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 35–42 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 39–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 42–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 46–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 49–28 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 18–53 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 21–49 LSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 25–46 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 28–42 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 32–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 35–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 39–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARK 42–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARK 46–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 14–49 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 18–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 21–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 25–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 28–35 LSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 32–32 LSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 35–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 39–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 42–21 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 11–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 14–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 18–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 21–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 25–32 LSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 28–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 32–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 35–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 39–18 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 7–42 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 11–39 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 14–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 18–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 21–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 25–25 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARK 28–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 32–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 35–14 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 4–39 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 7–35 LSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 11–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARK 14–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 18–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARK 21–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 25–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARK 28–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARK 32–11 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 0–35 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 4–32 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 7–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARK 11–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 14–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 18–18 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 21–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 25–11 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 28–7 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalLSU +35LSU +21LSU +7ARK +7ARK +21margin →