CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Golden Boot
Forecast win probability
LSU 81.5%18.6% ARK
Projected margin
LSU by 14.0
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
LSU 33 to ARK 5
Win probability
LSU 81.5%

Current team profiles

LSU
Arkansas

When LSU has the ball

Passing

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#24
ARK defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#42
ARK defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.17
#42
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU offense
#14
ARK defense
#100
Success rates
50%
#14
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.26
#27
0.17
#111
EPA / play
1.24
#62
1.16
#38
Explosiveness
16%
#88
13%
#111
Havoc

When Arkansas has the ball

Passing

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
ARK offense
#88
EPA comparison
-0.13
#3
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#29
ARK offense
#134
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
-0.11
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

LSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
LSU defense
#3
ARK offense
#96
Success rates
32%
#3
41%
#96
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#10
0.01
#120
EPA / play
1.21
#67
1.08
#129
Explosiveness
21%
#8
19%
#126
Havoc

Current key players

LSU
QBSam Leavitt
1220 yds · 8 TD · 7 INT
84.150/729
LBTJ Dottery
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
90.5
Pressures
10
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
90.211/1796
STamarcus Cooley
12 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.2
Coverage
90.6
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
29.5
Missed tackles
2
90.09/2969
LBTylen Singleton
8 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.8
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.644/1796
WRCorey Barber Jr.
8 rec · 98 yds · 2 TD
77.090/2069
CBMichael Turner Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.0
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
1
76.0159/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Phillip Wright III · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Wright III is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Dashawn Spears · Sout · 2026-09-21

    Spears has been sidelined due to a torn ACL, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Trey'Dez Green · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Raycine Guillory Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guillory Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Arkansas
QBKJ Jackson
1038 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
64.0225/729
WRChris Marshall
35 rec · 517 yds · 2 TD
81.246/2069
LBBen Bogle
36 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.7
Coverage
58.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
78.799/1796
DBShelton Lewis
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
45
Passer rating allowed
64.6
Missed tackles
1
78.584/2969
DBKhmori House
33 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
68.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
94.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2266/2969
WRJelani Watkins
27 rush yds · 0 TD · 3 car
73.0164/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Maddox Lassiter · TEout · 2026-08-16

    Lassiter has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an upper body injury.

  • H. Hendrix · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hendrix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Commodores on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LSU
ARK
vs
Offense
84.1
#44 of 138
QB
64.0
#122 of 138
73.9
#84 of 138
RB
67.0
#135 of 138
74.8
#34 of 138
WR
72.9
#50 of 138
72.7
#48 of 138
TE
61.8
#107 of 138
68.5
#63 of 138
OL
64.3
#102 of 138
Defense
78.6
#19 of 138
DL
72.4
#79 of 138
84.5
#6 of 138
LB
70.2
#103 of 138
76.8
#20 of 138
DB
70.2
#94 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

LSU
opponent
Arkansas
H+29.0
TA&M#28
-27.0A
H-0.4
TEX#7
-22.3A
A+3.4
AUB#42
-13.2A
A-4.1
TENN#21
-7.0H