AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Foy-ODK Sportsmanship Trophy
#31Away
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
20p
#12Home
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
32p
AUB 19%81% ALA
Spread
ALA -12.7
Total
52
Moneyline
AUB+426ALA-426
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AUB advantageevenALA advantage →
AUB throw
AUB protection #51ALA pass rush #67
AUB +6
AUB run
even
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
even
ALA run
AUB +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · AUB
CB1 · ALA
86.7
87.6
dead even
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · AUB
MLB · ALA
78.7
87.5
ALA +9
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · ALA
MLB · AUB
64.3
93.4
AUB +29
over the middle
Jonathan Echols
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · AUB
FS · ALA
67.1
83.7
ALA +17
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · ALA
CB1 · AUB
78.5
66.3
ALA +12
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · AUB
EDGE · ALA
53.1
73.4
ALA +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Auburn
opponent
Alabama
away-20.8
Georgia#3
-5.6home
away+1.1
Mississippi State#45
+11.3away
away-10.7
Tennessee#17
-0.5away
home-1.9
Vanderbilt#23
+3.3away
home-1.6
LSU#20
+3.5away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +12.795% interval: -11.9 to 37.380% interval: -5.2 to 30.6-5+31AUB wins 19%ALA wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 32–18 AUBALA 28–42 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 32–39 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 35–35 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesALA 39–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 42–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 46–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 49–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 53–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 56–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 25–39 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 28–35 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 32–32 AUB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 35–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 39–25 AUB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesALA 42–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 46–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 49–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 53–11 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 21–35 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 25–32 AUB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 28–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 32–25 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 35–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesALA 39–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 42–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 46–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 49–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 18–32 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 21–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 25–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 28–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 32–18 AUB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesALA 35–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 39–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 42–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 46–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 14–28 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 18–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 21–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 25–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 28–14 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 32–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 35–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 39–4 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 42–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 11–25 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 14–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 18–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 21–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 25–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 28–7 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesALA 32–4 AUB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 35–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ALA 7–21 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 11–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 14–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 18–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 21–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 25–4 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesALA 28–0 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalAUB +14PKALA +14ALA +28ALA +42margin →