AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Territorial Cup
#43Away
Arizona State
0-0 · AVR 57.5
22p
#26Home
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
32p
ASU 26%74% ARIZ
Spread
ARIZ -9.6
Total
54
Moneyline
ASU+280ARIZ-280
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ASU advantageevenARIZ advantage →
ASU throw
ASU WR #16ASU protection #115
ARIZ +19
ASU run
ARIZ front #91ARIZ linebackers #5
ARIZ +55
ARIZ throw
ASU +17
ARIZ run
ARIZ +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ASU throws
Omarion Miller
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · ASU
CB1 · ARIZ
73.4
101.6
ARIZ +28
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Jalen Thompson
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · ASU
76.2
75.2
dead even
over the middle
Cole Rusk
vs
Rodney Bimage Jr.
TE · ARIZ
FS · ASU
69.2
70.2
dead even
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Ashton Stamps
X · ARIZ
CB1 · ASU
52.5
85.2
ASU +33
when ASU runs
Demarius Robinson
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · ASU
MLB · ARIZ
47.5
84.0
ARIZ +36
over the middle
Anthony Miller
vs
Johno Price
TE · ASU
FS · ARIZ
51.9
75.7
ARIZ +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona State
DBAshton Stamps
85.243/1427
DBJessiah McGrew
78.0115/1427
WROmarion Miller
73.438/777
SAdrian Wilson
73.3172/1427
WRRaiden Vines-Bright
70.951/777
LBMartell Hughes
67.7182/878

also out — key defensive lineman (DL), Nigel Pringle (CB), Z. Fiaseu (LB)

Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona State
opponent
Arizona
away-19.4
Texas Tech#5
-12.3away
away-12.8
BYU#19
-5.8away
home+0.5
Kansas State#44
+2.6away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +9.695% interval: -15 to 34.280% interval: -8.3 to 27.5-8+28ASU wins 26%ARIZ wins 74%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 32–25 ASUARIZ 28–49 ASU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesARIZ 32–46 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 35–42 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 39–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 46–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 49–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 53–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 56–21 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 25–46 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 28–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 32–39 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 35–35 ASU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 39–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 46–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 49–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 53–18 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 21–42 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 25–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 28–35 ASU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 32–32 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 35–28 ASU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 39–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARIZ 42–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 46–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 49–14 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 18–39 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 21–35 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 25–32 ASU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARIZ 28–28 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 32–25 ASU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 35–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 39–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 42–14 ASU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 46–11 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 14–35 ASU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 18–32 ASU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 21–28 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 25–25 ASU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 28–21 ASU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 32–18 ASU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 35–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 39–11 ASU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 42–7 ASU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 11–32 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 14–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 18–25 ASU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 21–21 ASU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARIZ 25–18 ASU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARIZ 28–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARIZ 32–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 35–7 ASU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 39–4 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 7–28 ASU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 11–25 ASU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 14–21 ASU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 18–18 ASU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 21–14 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 25–11 ASU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 28–7 ASU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 32–4 ASU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 35–0 ASU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalASU +21ASU +7ARIZ +7ARIZ +21ARIZ +35margin →