AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#105Away
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
20p
#75Home
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
33p
KENN 20%80% WKU
Spread
WKU -12.5
Total
53
Moneyline
KENN+399WKU-399
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENN advantageevenWKU advantage →
KENN throw
WKU pass rush #101
WKU +46
KENN run
WKU +12
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
KENN +4
WKU run
KENN +52

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · KENN
CB1 · WKU
49.2
87.0
WKU +38
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · WKU
MLB · KENN
56.8
76.2
KENN +19
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Kody Jones
X · WKU
CB1 · KENN
57.8
63.2
KENN +5
over the middle
Gerard Bullock Jr.
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · KENN
FS · WKU
45.8
71.4
WKU +26
over the middle
Griffin Reimer
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · WKU
FS · KENN
58.1
50.6
WKU +8
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · KENN
MLB · WKU
47.5
58.1
WKU +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kennesaw State
opponent
Western Kentucky
away+2.0
Missouri State#125
+16.9home
away+0.1
Middle Tennessee#124
+10.1away
home+1.2
Delaware#102
+11.2home
away+6.4
Sam Houston#137
+16.4away
home-3.9
Jacksonville State#89
+6.0home
home-2.5
Liberty#106
+2.5away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +12.595% interval: -12.1 to 3780% interval: -5.4 to 30.3-5+30KENN wins 20%WKU wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 35–21 KENNWKU 32–46 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 35–42 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 39–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 42–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWKU 46–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 49–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 53–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 56–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 60–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWKU 28–42 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 32–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 35–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWKU 39–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWKU 42–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 46–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 49–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWKU 53–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 56–14 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 25–39 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 28–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 32–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 35–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 39–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWKU 42–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWKU 46–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 49–14 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 53–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 21–35 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 25–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWKU 28–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 32–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWKU 35–21 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWKU 39–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 42–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 46–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 49–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 18–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 21–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWKU 25–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 28–21 KENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWKU 32–18 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWKU 35–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 39–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 42–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 46–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 14–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 18–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 21–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 25–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 28–14 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWKU 32–11 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWKU 35–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 39–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 42–0 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 11–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 14–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 18–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWKU 21–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWKU 25–11 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 28–7 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 32–4 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWKU 35–0 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalKENN +14PKWKU +14WKU +28WKU +42margin →