AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#95Away
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
27p
#104Home
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
28p
TROY 48%52% ARST
Spread
ARST -0.8
Total
55
Moneyline
TROY+109ARST-109
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TROY advantageevenARST advantage →
TROY throw
ARST +17
TROY run
TROY +8
ARST throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +21
ARST run
ARST backs #67
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · ARST
CB1 · TROY
45.7
83.7
TROY +38
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · ARST
MLB · TROY
59.4
68.5
TROY +9
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Five Hamilton
X · TROY
CB1 · ARST
51.9
67.8
ARST +16
off the edge· hunting Kilcrease
Patrick Screws Jr.
vs
Shakai Woods
LT · TROY
EDGE · ARST
33.0
84.8
ARST +52
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · TROY
MLB · ARST
50.3
51.6
dead even
over the middle
Tyler Little
vs
Joe Lott
TE · ARST
FS · TROY
38.4
62.8
TROY +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Troy
opponent
Arkansas State
home+2.5
Louisiana Tech#94
-4.3away
home+2.6
Southern Miss#93
-4.1away
away-3.2
South Alabama#100
+0.1home
away-4.4
Louisiana#99
-6.2away
home+14.4
UL Monroe#132
+12.7home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARST +0.895% interval: -23.8 to 25.380% interval: -17.1 to 18.6-17+19TROY wins 48%ARST wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARST 28–28 TROYARST 25–53 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 28–49 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 32–46 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 35–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 39–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 42–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 46–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 49–28 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 53–25 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 21–49 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 25–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 28–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARST 32–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 35–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARST 39–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 42–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 46–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 49–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 18–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 21–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 25–39 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 28–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARST 32–32 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 35–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 39–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 42–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 46–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 14–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 18–39 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 21–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 25–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 28–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARST 32–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 35–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 39–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 42–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 11–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 14–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 18–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 21–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 25–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 28–21 TROY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARST 32–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARST 35–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 39–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARST 7–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 11–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 14–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 18–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARST 21–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 25–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 28–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARST 32–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 35–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 4–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 7–28 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 11–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARST 14–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 18–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 21–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 25–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 28–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 32–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTROY +28TROY +14PKARST +14ARST +28margin →