Passing
TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY offense
- #101
- ARST defense
- #135
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.46
#135
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 3:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TROY 41.0%59.0% ARST
- Projected margin
- ARST by 3.7
- Projected total
- 51
- 80% outcome range
- TROY 15 to ARST 22
- Win probability
- ARST 59.0%
Current team profiles
Troy
Arkansas StateWhen Troy has the ball
Rushing
TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY offense
- #45
- ARST defense
- #102
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
0.13
#102
Rush EPA
Drive success
TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY offense
- #79
- ARST defense
- #129
Success rates
43%
#79
47%
#129
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#78
0.21
#123
EPA / play
1.26
#47
1.20
#63
Explosiveness
17%
#114
11%
#132
Havoc
When Arkansas State has the ball
Passing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY defense
- #71
- ARST offense
- #70
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.23
#70
Pass EPA
Rushing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY defense
- #56
- ARST offense
- #39
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.18
#39
Rush EPA
Drive success
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TROY defense
- #64
- ARST offense
- #13
Success rates
40%
#64
50%
#13
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#73
0.18
#59
EPA / play
1.35
#116
1.16
#103
Explosiveness
17%
#59
14%
#66
Havoc
Current key players
TroyQBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.7
- Coverage
- 78.7
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 37
- Passer rating allowed
- 118.1
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.0
- Coverage
- 67.2
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 31
- Passer rating allowed
- 100.7
- Missed tackles
- 5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.5
- Coverage
- 68.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.3
- Missed tackles
- 1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.2
- Coverage
- 67.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
- Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03
Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06
Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.
Arkansas StateQBTrey Owens
1043 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
77.596/729
LBKam Moore
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.234/1796
LBRobert Stevens
25 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 89.5
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 17
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
84.940/1796
SBrandon Greil
16 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.5
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 54
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.458/2969
CBNoah Flores
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.2
- Coverage
- 81.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 108
- Passer rating allowed
- 101.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.097/2969
RBJames Lee
123 yds · 0 TD · 7.2 YPC
75.5170/1044
Availability reports · 1
- Devin Spencer · RBout · 2026-08-17
Spencer is dealing with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TROYTroy
ARSTArkansas State
vs
Offense
60.7
#130 of 138
QB
Quarterback
77.5
#73 of 138
76.6
#59 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.5
#77 of 138
67.0
#121 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.0
#61 of 138
69.3
#68 of 138
TE
Tight ends
67.0
#82 of 138
61.6
#123 of 138
OL
Offensive line
71.0
#46 of 138
Defense
64.1
#138 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.6
#77 of 138
69.1
#112 of 138
LB
Linebackers
77.9
#37 of 138
72.0
#71 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.6
#21 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Troy
opponent
Arkansas State
Hhome+21.0
USMSouthern Miss#139-2.0Aaway
Aaway-8.8
ULLouisiana#92-3.0Aaway
Hhome+0.4
LTLouisiana Tech#87-3.9Aaway
Hhome+14.5
ULMUL Monroe#163+15.5Hhome
Aaway-7.4
USASouth Alabama#96-7.0Hhome