AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Tue Nov 24 · 5:00 AM
#128Away
Kent State
0-0 · AVR 27.2
24p
#112Home
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
33p
KENT 27%73% EMU
Spread
EMU -9.0
Total
57
Moneyline
KENT+267EMU-267
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENT advantageevenEMU advantage →
KENT throw
KENT QB #55KENT protection #112
KENT +15
KENT run
EMU +9
EMU throw
EMU +27
EMU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Davion Pritchard
X · EMU
CB1 · KENT
61.6
59.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Darian Blachewicz
LT · EMU
EDGE · KENT
48.5
65.9
KENT +17
when KENT runs
Jakorion Caffey
vs
Barry Manning
RB · KENT
MLB · EMU
53.3
57.4
EMU +4
when KENT throws
Da'Realyst Clark
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · KENT
CB1 · EMU
44.9
61.5
EMU +17
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Hayden Dawahare
RB · EMU
MLB · KENT
50.0
53.9
KENT +4
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Joel Cordoba
TE · EMU
FS · KENT
61.5
36.6
EMU +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kent State
QBDru DeShields
64.556/308
DBDavion Pritchard
59.4498/1427
LBHayden Dawahare
53.9407/878
RBJakorion Caffey
53.3196/514
SClinton Robinson
49.2795/1427
TETerik Mulder
47.9148/287
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kent State
opponent
Eastern Michigan
away-14.4
Sacramento State#111
+15.5home
away-15.0
Western Michigan#84
-8.5away
home-6.8
Ohio#101
-5.3away
home-1.6
Akron#115
-0.1away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKEMU +9.095% interval: -15.6 to 33.680% interval: -8.9 to 26.9-9+27KENT wins 27%EMU wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ EMU 32–25 KENTEMU 28–49 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 32–46 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 35–42 KENT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 39–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 42–35 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesEMU 46–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 49–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 53–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 56–21 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 25–46 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 28–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesEMU 32–39 KENT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesEMU 35–35 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 39–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesEMU 42–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 46–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 49–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesEMU 53–18 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 21–42 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 25–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 28–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 32–32 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 35–28 KENT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 39–25 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 42–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesEMU 46–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 49–14 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 18–39 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 21–35 KENT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 25–32 KENT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 28–28 KENT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesEMU 32–25 KENT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesEMU 35–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 39–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 42–14 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 46–11 KENT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 14–35 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 18–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 21–28 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 25–25 KENT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 28–21 KENT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 32–18 KENT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesEMU 35–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 39–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 42–7 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 11–32 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 14–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesEMU 18–25 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 21–21 KENT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 25–18 KENT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 28–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesEMU 32–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 35–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 39–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 7–28 KENT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 11–25 KENT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 14–21 KENT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 18–18 KENT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 21–14 KENT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesEMU 25–11 KENT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesEMU 28–7 KENT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 32–4 KENT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 35–0 KENT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalKENT +21KENT +7EMU +7EMU +21EMU +35margin →