AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 8:30 PM
Sunshine Showdown
#25Away
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
27p
#30Home
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
28p
FLA 46%54% FSU
Spread
FSU -1.4
Total
55
Moneyline
FLA+117FSU-117
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FLA advantageevenFSU advantage →
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
FSU +11
FLA run
FLA +18
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
FLA +5
FSU run
FLA +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · FLA
MLB · FSU
80.9
79.5
dead even
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · FSU
CB1 · FLA
87.7
72.0
FSU +16
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · FSU
EDGE · FLA
68.0
90.7
FLA +23
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Myles Graham
RB · FSU
MLB · FLA
68.8
86.1
FLA +17
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · FLA
CB1 · FSU
71.4
73.6
dead even
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Donny Hiebert
TE · FLA
FS · FSU
73.7
61.2
FLA +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFSU +1.495% interval: -23.2 to 2680% interval: -16.5 to 19.3-16+19FLA wins 46%FSU wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FSU 28–28 FLAFSU 25–53 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 28–49 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 32–46 FLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 35–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFSU 39–39 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 42–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 46–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFSU 49–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 53–25 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 21–49 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 25–46 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 28–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 32–39 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 35–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 39–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 42–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 46–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFSU 49–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 18–46 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 21–42 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFSU 25–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFSU 28–35 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 32–32 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFSU 35–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 39–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFSU 42–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFSU 46–18 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 14–42 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 18–39 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFSU 21–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 25–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 28–28 FLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFSU 32–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFSU 35–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 39–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFSU 42–14 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 11–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 14–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFSU 18–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 21–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFSU 25–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFSU 28–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 32–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFSU 35–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFSU 39–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 7–35 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 11–32 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 14–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 18–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 21–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 25–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 28–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 32–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 35–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 4–32 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 7–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 11–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFSU 14–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 18–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 21–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 25–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 28–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 32–4 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalFLA +28FLA +14PKFSU +14FSU +28margin →