AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#65Away
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
26p
#48Home
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
34p
MSU 30%70% RUTG
Spread
RUTG -7.8
Total
60
Moneyline
MSU+237RUTG-237
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MSU advantageevenRUTG advantage →
MSU throw
MSU QB #138RUTG coverage #153
RUTG +17
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
MSU +10
RUTG throw
RUTG +22
RUTG run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
RUTG +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Charles Brantley
X · RUTG
CB1 · MSU
87.1
85.6
dead even
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · RUTG
MLB · MSU
86.0
86.7
dead even
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Ty Morris
RB · MSU
MLB · RUTG
83.7
65.5
MSU +18
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · RUTG
EDGE · MSU
73.7
68.5
RUTG +5
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · MSU
EDGE · RUTG
42.1
96.3
RUTG +54
over the middle
Jackson Gister
vs
Caleb Gash
TE · RUTG
FS · MSU
57.2
48.6
RUTG +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427
Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Michigan State
opponent
Rutgers
away-22.7
Michigan#13
-12.4home
home-6.5
Nebraska#41
-1.2home
away-4.8
Wisconsin#58
+0.5away
home-7.5
Northwestern#37
-7.3away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKRUTG +7.895% interval: -16.8 to 32.480% interval: -10.1 to 25.7-10+26MSU wins 30%RUTG wins 70%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ RUTG 35–28 MSURUTG 32–53 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRUTG 35–49 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 39–46 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 42–42 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 46–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 49–35 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 53–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 56–28 MSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRUTG 60–25 MSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRUTG 28–49 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 32–46 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 35–42 MSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRUTG 39–39 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 42–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRUTG 46–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 49–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 53–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 56–21 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 25–46 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 28–42 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 35–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRUTG 39–32 MSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 42–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 46–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 49–21 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 53–18 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 21–42 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 25–39 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 28–35 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 35–28 MSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRUTG 39–25 MSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 42–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 46–18 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 49–14 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 18–39 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 21–35 MSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 25–32 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 28–28 MSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 32–25 MSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRUTG 35–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 39–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 42–14 MSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 46–11 MSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 14–35 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 18–32 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 21–28 MSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 25–25 MSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 28–21 MSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 35–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 39–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 42–7 MSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 11–32 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 14–28 MSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 18–25 MSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRUTG 21–21 MSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 25–18 MSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRUTG 28–14 MSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 32–11 MSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 35–7 MSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 39–4 MSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalMSU +21MSU +7RUTG +7RUTG +21RUTG +35margin →