CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
#30Away
Pittsburgh
5-1 · AVR 67.8
31p
#90Home
California
3-3 · AVR 56.1
21p
Forecast win probability
PITT 74.0%26.0% CAL
Projected margin
PITT by 10.2
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
PITT 29 to CAL 8
Win probability
PITT 74.0%

Current team profiles

Pittsburgh
California

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Passing

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT offense
#38
CAL defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.33
#38
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

PITT offense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT offense
#93
CAL defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.19
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT offense
#50
CAL defense
#36
Success rates
45%
#50
37%
#36
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#57
0.06
#70
EPA / play
1.23
#74
1.40
#128
Explosiveness
11%
#23
14%
#97
Havoc

When California has the ball

Passing

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT defense
#71
CAL offense
#92
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.13
#92
Pass EPA

Rushing

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT defense
#2
CAL offense
#123
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

PITT defense
Higher-ranked profile
PITT defense
#6
CAL offense
#113
Success rates
32%
#6
39%
#113
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#21
0.01
#119
EPA / play
1.41
#130
1.28
#42
Explosiveness
18%
#34
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Pittsburgh
QBMason Heintschel
1304 yds · 14 TD · 1 INT
82.460/729
LBJustin Thompson
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.2
Coverage
71.3
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.729/1796
WRBryan Hamilton
1 rec · 36 yds · 1 TD
81.943/2069
DBRashan Murray
5 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.3
Coverage
82.4
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
10.7
Missed tackles
0
81.843/2969
WRTyreek Robinson
5 rec · 78 yds · 1 TD
80.455/2069
DBShawn Lee Jr.
15 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.2
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
51.3
Missed tackles
4
80.062/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Malik Knight · WRout · 2026-09-26

    Knight is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Mason Heintschel · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Heintschel exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Boston College on Saturday, Octo

  • Elijah Lagg · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Lagg is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Hunt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hunt is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will play against Boston College on Saturday, October 17th.

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

PITT
CAL
vs
Offense
82.4
#51 of 138
QB
76.3
#77 of 138
74.1
#81 of 138
RB
73.2
#93 of 138
77.6
#20 of 138
WR
66.0
#128 of 138
70.8
#61 of 138
TE
57.9
#132 of 138
66.7
#80 of 138
OL
67.0
#78 of 138
Defense
84.2
#2 of 138
DL
70.3
#102 of 138
78.8
#29 of 138
LB
70.6
#99 of 138
75.7
#26 of 138
DB
77.1
#15 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Pittsburgh
opponent
California
H+14.0
SYR#68
+3.0A
A+2.0
VT#46
+5.0H