AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#33Away
Pittsburgh
0-0 · AVR 60.7
31p
#68Home
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
24p
PITT 67%33% CAL
Spread
PITT -6.6
Total
55
Moneyline
PITT-204CAL+204
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PITT advantageevenCAL advantage →
PITT throw
PITT QB #26PITT protection #78
PITT +20
PITT run
PITT backs #32CAL linebackers #81
PITT +34
CAL throw
CAL protection #105PITT pass rush #8
even
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
PITT +54

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Shawn Lee Jr.
X · CAL
CB1 · PITT
78.7
84.7
PITT +6
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Braylan Lovelace
RB · CAL
MLB · PITT
69.4
89.0
PITT +20
when PITT runs
Ja'Kyrian Turner
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · PITT
MLB · CAL
73.8
69.7
PITT +4
when PITT throws
Bryce Yates
vs
Cam Sidney
X · PITT
CB1 · CAL
55.6
78.5
CAL +23
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Jimmy Scott
LT · CAL
EDGE · PITT
43.6
88.3
PITT +45
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Josh Guerrier
TE · CAL
FS · PITT
63.0
50.8
CAL +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Pittsburgh
LBBraylan Lovelace
89.012/878
DBShawn Lee Jr.
84.748/1427
LBDeMarco Ward
79.067/878
QBMason Heintschel
77.426/308
DBCruce Brookins
76.7130/1427
RBJa'Kyrian Turner
73.840/514

also out — Keith Gouveia (OL)

California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Pittsburgh
opponent
California
home+12.1
Syracuse#71
-2.0away
away+3.5
Virginia Tech#57
-0.6home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPITT +6.695% interval: -31.2 to 1880% interval: -24.5 to 11.3-24+11PITT wins 67%CAL wins 33%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PITT 32–25 CALCAL 21–56 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 25–53 PITT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 28–49 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 32–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 35–42 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 39–39 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 42–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 46–32 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 49–28 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 18–53 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 21–49 PITT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 25–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 28–42 PITT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 32–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 35–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 39–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 42–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 46–25 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 14–49 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 18–46 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 21–42 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 25–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCAL 28–35 PITT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCAL 32–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCAL 35–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 39–25 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 42–21 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 11–46 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 14–42 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 18–39 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 21–35 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 25–32 PITT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCAL 28–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 32–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 35–21 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 39–18 PITT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 7–42 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 11–39 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 14–35 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 18–32 PITT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 21–28 PITT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 25–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 28–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 32–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCAL 35–14 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 4–39 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 7–35 PITT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 11–32 PITT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 14–28 PITT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 18–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 21–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 25–18 PITT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 28–14 PITT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 32–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 0–35 PITT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 4–32 PITT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 7–28 PITT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 11–25 PITT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 14–21 PITT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCAL 18–18 PITT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 21–14 PITT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 25–11 PITT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 28–7 PITT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalPITT +35PITT +21PITT +7CAL +7CAL +21margin →