AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:30 AM
Paul Bunyan's Axe
#54Away
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
24p
#58Home
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
25p
MINN 49%51% WIS
Spread
WIS -0.2
Total
49
Moneyline
MINN+104WIS-104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MINN advantageevenWIS advantage →
MINN throw
MINN +13
MINN run
WIS +17
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
MINN +15
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
MINN +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Mason Posa
RB · MINN
MLB · WIS
69.0
79.6
WIS +11
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · WIS
MLB · MINN
69.7
78.3
MINN +9
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Javan Robinson
X · MINN
CB1 · WIS
61.2
82.8
WIS +22
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · MINN
EDGE · WIS
50.2
79.0
WIS +29
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · WIS
EDGE · MINN
31.5
86.8
MINN +55
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
John Nestor
X · WIS
CB1 · MINN
44.2
71.9
MINN +28

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Minnesota
opponent
Wisconsin
home-8.1
Iowa#22
-15.4away
home+2.8
UCLA#53
-4.5away
away-13.3
Penn State#21
-15.7away
away+1.7
Purdue#69
-0.6away

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWIS +0.295% interval: -24.4 to 24.880% interval: -17.7 to 18.1-18+18MINN wins 49%WIS wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WIS 25–25 MINNWIS 21–49 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 25–46 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 28–42 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 32–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 35–35 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 39–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 42–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 46–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 49–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 18–46 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 21–42 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 25–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 28–35 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 32–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWIS 35–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 39–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 42–21 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 46–18 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 14–42 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 18–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 21–35 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 25–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWIS 28–28 MINN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWIS 32–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 35–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 39–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 42–14 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 11–39 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 14–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 18–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 21–28 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWIS 25–25 MINN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWIS 28–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWIS 32–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 35–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 39–11 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 7–35 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 11–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 14–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 18–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWIS 21–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWIS 25–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 28–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 32–11 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 35–7 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 4–32 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWIS 7–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 11–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 14–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 18–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWIS 21–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 25–11 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 28–7 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 32–4 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 0–28 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 4–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 7–21 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 11–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 14–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 18–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 21–7 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 25–4 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 28–0 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalMINN +28MINN +14PKWIS +14WIS +28margin →