AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 5:00 PM
Heroes Trophy
#41Away
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
22p
#22Home
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
31p
NEB 27%73% IOWA
Spread
IOWA -8.8
Total
54
Moneyline
NEB+270IOWA-270
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEB advantageevenIOWA advantage →
NEB throw
IOWA pass rush #76
NEB +6
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
NEB +18
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
NEB +35
IOWA run
IOWA +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · IOWA
EDGE · NEB
91.6
73.3
IOWA +18
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · NEB
CB1 · IOWA
70.0
91.9
IOWA +22
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · IOWA
MLB · NEB
74.1
83.3
NEB +9
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Luke Gaffney
LT · NEB
EDGE · IOWA
76.6
68.5
NEB +8
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Victor Evans III
TE · IOWA
FS · NEB
72.6
66.1
IOWA +7
when IOWA throws
Reece Vander Zee
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · IOWA
CB1 · NEB
48.0
84.3
NEB +36

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nebraska
opponent
Iowa
home-21.5
Ohio State#1
-15.2home
away-2.9
Illinois#35
+3.4away
home-7.8
Washington#15
-6.5away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +8.895% interval: -15.8 to 33.480% interval: -9.1 to 26.7-9+27NEB wins 27%IOWA wins 73%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IOWA 32–25 NEBIOWA 28–49 NEB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesIOWA 32–46 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 35–42 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 39–39 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIOWA 42–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 46–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 49–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 53–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 56–21 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–46 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 28–42 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 32–39 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 35–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 39–32 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 42–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 46–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIOWA 49–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 53–18 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 21–42 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–35 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 32–32 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 35–28 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIOWA 39–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 42–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 46–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 49–14 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 18–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 21–35 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 25–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 32–25 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 35–21 NEB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIOWA 39–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 42–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 46–11 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 14–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 18–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 21–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIOWA 25–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 28–21 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 32–18 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIOWA 35–14 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–11 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 42–7 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 11–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 14–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 18–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 21–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIOWA 25–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–14 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 32–11 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 35–7 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–4 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 7–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 11–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIOWA 14–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 18–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 21–14 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–11 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 28–7 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 32–4 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 35–0 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalNEB +21NEB +7IOWA +7IOWA +21IOWA +35margin →