AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 5:00 AM
#113Away
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
23p
#63Home
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
34p
TEM 22%78% MEM
Spread
MEM -11.4
Total
57
Moneyline
TEM+361MEM-361
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TEM advantageevenMEM advantage →
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
MEM +42
TEM run
MEM +45
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
MEM +16
MEM run
MEM +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Ian Foster
X · TEM
CB1 · MEM
64.8
90.2
MEM +25
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Adrian Laing
X · MEM
CB1 · TEM
60.4
72.1
TEM +12
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Quante Gillians
LT · MEM
EDGE · TEM
79.2
50.2
MEM +29
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Khalil Foster
TE · TEM
FS · MEM
65.5
62.7
dead even
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · TEM
MLB · MEM
55.8
71.4
MEM +16
off the edge· hunting Smolik
Eric King
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · TEM
EDGE · MEM
37.2
86.2
MEM +49

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Temple
opponent
Memphis
away-9.4
East Carolina#77
+4.5home
away-7.7
Navy#82
+1.3away
away-10.3
South Florida#78
-1.4away
home+4.0
UAB#121
+12.9home
home+4.8
Army#118
+13.7home
home+10.8
Charlotte#135
+14.7away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +11.495% interval: -13.2 to 3680% interval: -6.5 to 29.3-6+29TEM wins 22%MEM wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MEM 35–21 TEMMEM 32–46 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 35–42 TEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMEM 39–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 42–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 46–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 49–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMEM 53–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 56–21 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 60–18 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 28–42 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 32–39 TEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMEM 35–35 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 39–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 42–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMEM 46–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 49–21 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 53–18 TEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMEM 56–14 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 25–39 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 28–35 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 32–32 TEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMEM 35–28 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 39–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMEM 42–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 46–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 49–14 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 53–11 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 21–35 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 25–32 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 28–28 TEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMEM 32–25 TEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMEM 35–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMEM 39–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMEM 42–14 TEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMEM 46–11 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 49–7 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 18–32 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 21–28 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 25–25 TEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMEM 28–21 TEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMEM 32–18 TEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMEM 35–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 39–11 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 42–7 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 46–4 TEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMEM 14–28 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMEM 18–25 TEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMEM 21–21 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 25–18 TEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMEM 28–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMEM 32–11 TEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMEM 35–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMEM 39–4 TEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMEM 42–0 TEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMEM 11–25 TEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMEM 14–21 TEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMEM 18–18 TEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMEM 21–14 TEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMEM 25–11 TEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMEM 28–7 TEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMEM 32–4 TEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMEM 35–0 TEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTEM +14PKMEM +14MEM +28MEM +42margin →