CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
UTEP 49.7%50.3% NIU
Projected margin
NIU by 0.0
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
UTEP 19 to NIU 19
Win probability
NIU 50.3%

Current team profiles

UTEP
Northern Illinois

When UTEP has the ball

Passing

NIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#136
NIU defense
#89
EPA comparison
-0.18
#136
0.20
#89
Pass EPA

Rushing

NIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#132
NIU defense
#131
EPA comparison
-0.10
#132
0.23
#131
Rush EPA

Drive success

NIU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#135
NIU defense
#131
Success rates
33%
#135
49%
#131
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#138
0.20
#121
EPA / play
1.28
#39
1.20
#54
Explosiveness
23%
#137
10%
#136
Havoc

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Passing

NIU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#137
NIU offense
#123
EPA comparison
0.48
#137
0.00
#123
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTEP defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#107
NIU offense
#137
EPA comparison
0.14
#107
-0.13
#137
Rush EPA

Drive success

NIU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#127
NIU offense
#125
Success rates
47%
#127
37%
#125
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#128
-0.12
#135
EPA / play
1.22
#71
1.14
#110
Explosiveness
13%
#117
17%
#112
Havoc

Current key players

UTEP
QBEJ Colson Jr.
541 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
60.2270/729
SKane White-Tinsley
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
78.780/2969
CBTJ Tillman
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.0
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7141/2969
CBDecorian Thompson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.6
Coverage
73.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
32
Passer rating allowed
68.8
Missed tackles
1
73.8243/2969
LBVashon Brunswick II
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
61.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
70.0370/1796
LBGarrett Hawkins
20 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.3
Coverage
50.9
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
69.9374/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • EJ Colson Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Colson Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Simon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Simon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Mason Ferguson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

Northern Illinois
QBBrady Davidson
27 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
69.3166/729
DBAaron Warren
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
82.6
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
80.6
Missed tackles
3
82.839/2969
LBJashawn Nelson
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
74.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.195/1796
RBJaidaun Cranford
59 yds · 0 TD · 7.4 YPC
74.6185/1044
CBYassine Falke
13 tkl · 0 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.1
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
30.7
Missed tackles
3
70.7404/2969
WRDeAree Rogers
31 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
69.9273/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Glen Weber · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Weber is battling with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Da'sean Howard · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Howard is suffering with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UTEP
NIU
vs
Offense
60.2
#131 of 138
QB
69.3
#104 of 138
63.0
#138 of 138
RB
72.5
#103 of 138
68.3
#103 of 138
WR
67.4
#117 of 138
60.0
#121 of 138
TE
65.0
#90 of 138
63.8
#106 of 138
OL
64.8
#97 of 138
Defense
71.2
#94 of 138
DL
64.5
#137 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
LB
69.3
#109 of 138
74.1
#44 of 138
DB
69.9
#100 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UTEP
opponent
Northern Illinois
H-17.0
NEV#109
-5.2H
A-11.5
AF#74
-21.0H
H-1.6
SJSU#123
-9.6A
H-2.1
WYO#126
-10.0A
A-20.0
NDSU#61
-22.6A
H-4.1
HAW#135
-6.7H