AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#133Away
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
24p
#134Home
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
25p
UTEP 46%54% NIU
Spread
NIU -1.4
Total
49
Moneyline
UTEP+117NIU-117
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTEP advantageevenNIU advantage →
UTEP throw
NIU +11
UTEP run
even
NIU throw
NIU protection #66
UTEP +19
NIU run
UTEP +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Shay Smith
RB · NIU
MLB · UTEP
56.7
80.0
UTEP +23
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Kode Lowe
X · NIU
CB1 · UTEP
54.9
61.7
UTEP +7
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Shakaun Bowser
LT · NIU
EDGE · UTEP
45.0
63.5
UTEP +18
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · UTEP
CB1 · NIU
36.6
59.3
NIU +23
over the middle
Jason Fowler
vs
Jaime Guerrero
TE · NIU
FS · UTEP
34.5
57.7
UTEP +23
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Broderick Windham
RB · UTEP
MLB · NIU
51.0
21.4
UTEP +30

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTEP
opponent
Northern Illinois
home-0.6
San José State#123
-6.6away
home-3.0
Wyoming#119
-9.0away
away-14.4
Air Force#98
-10.4home
away-16.7
North Dakota State#81
-17.8away
home-10.7
Hawai'i#90
-11.8home
home-2.2
Nevada#120
-3.3home

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNIU +1.495% interval: -23.1 to 2680% interval: -16.4 to 19.3-16+19UTEP wins 46%NIU wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NIU 25–25 UTEPNIU 21–49 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 25–46 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 28–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNIU 32–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 35–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 39–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNIU 42–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 46–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 49–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 18–46 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 21–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNIU 25–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 28–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNIU 32–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 35–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 39–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNIU 42–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 46–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 14–42 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 18–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 21–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 25–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 28–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 32–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNIU 35–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 39–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNIU 42–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNIU 11–39 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 14–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 18–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNIU 21–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNIU 25–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNIU 28–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNIU 32–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNIU 35–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNIU 39–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNIU 7–35 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 11–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNIU 14–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNIU 18–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNIU 21–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNIU 25–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNIU 28–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 32–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNIU 35–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNIU 4–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNIU 7–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 11–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNIU 14–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNIU 18–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNIU 21–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNIU 25–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNIU 28–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNIU 32–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNIU 0–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNIU 4–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNIU 7–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNIU 11–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNIU 14–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNIU 18–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNIU 21–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNIU 25–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNIU 28–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalUTEP +28UTEP +14PKNIU +14NIU +28margin →