AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#130Away
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
23p
#124Home
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
29p
NMSU 34%66% MTSU
Spread
MTSU -6.0
Total
52
Moneyline
NMSU+192MTSU-192
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NMSU advantageevenMTSU advantage →
NMSU throw
NMSU +5
NMSU run
MTSU +30
MTSU throw
NMSU +12
MTSU run
NMSU +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · NMSU
MLB · MTSU
48.5
79.4
MTSU +31
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Bernock Iya
X · MTSU
CB1 · NMSU
48.1
74.2
NMSU +26
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · MTSU
MLB · NMSU
51.1
68.2
NMSU +17
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
James Johnson
X · NMSU
CB1 · MTSU
49.2
49.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · MTSU
EDGE · NMSU
32.3
64.0
NMSU +32
over the middle
Tayvion Galloway
vs
Walter Owens
TE · MTSU
FS · NMSU
42.5
50.5
NMSU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico State
opponent
Middle Tennessee
home-5.0
Delaware#102
-1.4home
away+0.2
Sam Houston#137
+3.8away
home-13.6
Western Kentucky#75
-10.1home
away-10.4
Florida International#109
-6.9away
home-10.1
Jacksonville State#89
-11.6away
home-8.6
Liberty#106
-10.1away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMTSU +6.095% interval: -18.6 to 30.680% interval: -11.9 to 23.9-12+24NMSU wins 34%MTSU wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MTSU 28–21 NMSUMTSU 25–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 28–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 32–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 35–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 39–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 42–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 46–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 49–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 53–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 21–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 25–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 28–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 32–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMTSU 35–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMTSU 39–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 42–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 46–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 49–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 18–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 21–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 28–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 32–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 35–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 39–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 42–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 46–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 14–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 18–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 21–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 28–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMTSU 32–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 39–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 42–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 11–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 14–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 18–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMTSU 21–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMTSU 25–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 28–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 32–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 35–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 39–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 7–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 11–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 14–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 18–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 21–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 25–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMTSU 28–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 32–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 35–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 4–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 7–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 11–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 14–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 18–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 21–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 25–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 28–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalNMSU +21NMSU +7MTSU +7MTSU +21MTSU +35margin →