AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#83Away
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
35p
#132Home
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
23p
MRSH 80%20% ULM
Spread
MRSH -12.2
Total
57
Moneyline
MRSH-395ULM+395
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MRSH advantageevenULM advantage →
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
MRSH +46
MRSH run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
ULM +25
ULM throw
MRSH +31
ULM run
MRSH +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · MRSH
MLB · ULM
51.6
86.1
ULM +34
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Braydin Ward
LT · ULM
EDGE · MRSH
41.3
89.6
MRSH +48
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · ULM
CB1 · MRSH
48.1
79.3
MRSH +31
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · MRSH
CB1 · ULM
67.4
57.9
MRSH +10
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Daytione Smith
TE · ULM
FS · MRSH
61.0
62.5
dead even
over the middle
Toby Payne
vs
Armoni Rue
TE · MRSH
FS · ULM
56.9
41.2
MRSH +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Marshall
opponent
UL Monroe
home+4.7
South Alabama#100
-15.1away
home+7.3
App State#103
-12.4away

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +12.295% interval: -36.8 to 12.480% interval: -30.1 to 5.7-30+6MRSH wins 80%ULM wins 20%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 35–21 ULMULM 18–60 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 21–56 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 25–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 28–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 32–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 35–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 39–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesULM 42–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 46–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 14–56 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 18–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 21–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesULM 25–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 28–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesULM 32–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 35–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 39–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 42–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 11–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 14–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 18–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 21–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 25–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 28–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesULM 32–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 35–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 39–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 7–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 11–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 14–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 18–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesULM 21–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesULM 25–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 28–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 32–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 35–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 4–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 7–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 11–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 14–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesULM 18–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesULM 21–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesULM 25–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 28–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 32–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 0–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 4–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 7–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 11–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 14–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 18–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 21–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 25–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 28–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ULM 0–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 4–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 7–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 11–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesULM 14–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 18–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 21–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 25–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMRSH +42MRSH +28MRSH +14PKULM +14margin →