AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#138Away
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
15p
#114Home
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
37p
MASS 6%94% BGSU
Spread
BGSU -22.3
Total
52
Moneyline
MASS+1516BGSU-1516
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MASS advantageevenBGSU advantage →
MASS throw
BGSU +58
MASS run
BGSU +63
BGSU throw
BGSU +5
BGSU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · MASS
MLB · BGSU
50.1
69.1
BGSU +19
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · MASS
CB1 · BGSU
36.2
79.7
BGSU +43
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · BGSU
MLB · MASS
52.8
56.4
MASS +4
over the middle
Max Dowling
vs
Armhan Hale
TE · MASS
FS · BGSU
38.7
62.8
BGSU +24
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
DD Snyder
X · BGSU
CB1 · MASS
38.4
61.2
MASS +23
off the edge· hunting III
Zachary Franks
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · MASS
EDGE · BGSU
-1.8
95.5
BGSU +97

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Massachusetts
opponent
Bowling Green
away-28.7
Sacramento State#111
-3.8home
home-9.1
Ball State#136
+10.8home
away-20.3
Buffalo#116
-0.5away
away-30.1
Toledo#73
-10.3away
home-20.9
Miami (OH)#91
-6.1away

Projected margin

80% between 4 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBGSU +22.395% interval: -2.3 to 46.980% interval: 4.4 to 40.2+4+40MASS wins 6%BGSU wins 94%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BGSU 35–14 MASSBGSU 32–39 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 35–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 39–32 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 42–28 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 46–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBGSU 49–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 53–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBGSU 56–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 60–11 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 28–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 32–32 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 35–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 39–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 42–21 MASS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBGSU 46–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBGSU 49–14 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBGSU 53–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 56–7 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 25–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 28–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBGSU 32–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 35–21 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 39–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesBGSU 42–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBGSU 46–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 49–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 53–4 MASS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 21–28 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 25–25 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBGSU 28–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 32–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 35–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesBGSU 39–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 42–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 46–4 MASS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 49–0 MASS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 18–25 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 21–21 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 25–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBGSU 28–14 MASS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBGSU 32–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBGSU 35–7 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBGSU 39–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 42–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BGSU 14–21 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBGSU 18–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 21–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 25–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 28–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBGSU 32–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBGSU 35–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)BGSU 11–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 14–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 18–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 21–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 25–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBGSU 28–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMASS +7BGSU +7BGSU +21BGSU +35BGSU +49margin →