2025 Predictions
Win probability, projected score, and a calibrated margin for every game. FCS predictions
- Season
- 2025
- Weeks
- 16
- Games
- 887
Game of the weekSun Dec 7 · 1:00 AM · neutral siteFull breakdown
IU 43%57% OSU
- Spread
- OSU -2.4
- Total
- 46
- Margin σ
- 13.6
Margin distribution
Sat Dec 6final · model ✓
#90Troy
8-5 · AVR 38.6
#22James Madison
12-1 · AVR 60.7
Pregame win probability
TROY 5%95% JMU
model +22.4 · off by 5.4Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 6final · model ✗
#79Kennesaw State
10-3 · AVR 43.3
#72Jacksonville State
8-5 · AVR 45.6
Pregame win probability
KENN 22%78% JXST
model +10.4 · off by 14.4Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 6 · 1:00 AMfinal · model ✗
#35North Texas
11-2 · AVR 57.1
#41Tulane
11-2 · AVR 56.0
Pregame win probability
UNT 64%36% TULN
model -4.7 · off by 17.7Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 6 · 1:00 AMfinal · model ✗
#54UNLV
10-3 · AVR 54.8
#48Boise State
9-4 · AVR 56.0
Pregame win probability
UNLV 65%35% BOIS
model -5.3 · off by 22.3Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 6 · 5:00 PM· neutral sitefinal · model ✓
#15BYU
11-2 · AVR 70.7
#7Texas Tech
12-1 · AVR 80.4
Pregame win probability
BYU 22%78% TTU
model +10.5 · off by 16.5Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 6 · 5:00 PM· neutral sitefinal · model ✗
#88Miami (OH)
7-6 · AVR 44.1
#95Western Michigan
9-4 · AVR 39.0
Pregame win probability
M-OH 57%43% WMU
model -2.3 · off by 12.3Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 6 · 9:00 PM· neutral sitefinal · model ✗
#9Georgia
12-1 · AVR 77.0
#13Alabama
10-3 · AVR 73.6
Pregame win probability
UGA 47%53% ALA
model +1.2 · off by 22.2Full breakdown ›
Sun Dec 7 · 1:00 AM· neutral sitefinal · model ✗
#27Duke
8-5 · AVR 57.7
#33Virginia
10-3 · AVR 61.8
Pregame win probability
DUKE 47%53% UVA
model +0.9 · off by 7.9Full breakdown ›