CFB
Model

2025 Games

Win probability, projected score, and a calibrated margin for every game in Division I.

Updated: Week 17 - 09.07.26 23:29 EDT

Friday, Dec 5

8:00 PM ET

2 games
Final
#38North Texas11-121
#64Tulane10-234
UNT 64%36% TULN
model -4.7 · off by 17.7
Final
#75UNLV10-221
#51Boise State8-438
UNLV 65%35% BOIS
model -5.3 · off by 22.3

Time TBA

2 games
Final
#108Troy8-414
#33James Madison11-131
TROY 5%95% JMU
model +22.4 · off by 5.4
Final
#104Kennesaw State9-319
#134Jacksonville State8-415
KENN 22%78% JXST
model +10.4 · off by 14.4

Saturday, Dec 6

12:00 PM ET

4 games
Final · neutral
#20BYU11-17
#5Texas Tech11-134
BYU 22%78% TTU
model +10.5 · off by 16.5
Final
#115Villanova—14
#91Lehigh—7
Villanova 34%66% Lehigh
model +6.8 · off by 13.8
Final · neutral
#97Miami (OH)7-513
#93Western Michigan8-423
M-OH 57%43% WMU
model -2.3 · off by 12.3
Final
#143South Dakota—47
#96Mercer—0
South Dakota 35%65% Mercer
model +6.3 · off by 53.3

1:00 PM ET

2 games
Final
#127Illinois State—29
#43North Dakota State—28
Illinois State 10%90% North Dakota State
model +21.6 · off by 22.6
Final
#81North Dakota—13
#65Tarleton State—31
North Dakota 35%65% Tarleton State
model +6.2 · off by 11.8

2:00 PM ET

4 games
Final
#152Yale—13
#63Montana State—21
Yale 10%90% Montana State
model +21.7 · off by 13.7
Final
#128Abilene Christian—34
#80Stephen F. Austin—41
Abilene Christian 25%75% Stephen F. Austin
model +11.1 · off by 4.1
Final
#103South Dakota State—29
#100Montana—50
South Dakota State 54%46% Montana
model -1.6 · off by 22.6
Final
#208Prairie View A&M—23
#165Jackson State—21
Prairie View A&M 22%78% Jackson State
model +12.6 · off by 14.6

4:00 PM ET

1 game
Final · neutral
#13Georgia11-128
#6Alabama10-27
UGA 47%53% ALA
model +1.2 · off by 22.2

8:00 PM ET

2 games
Game of the weekFinal · neutral
#1Indiana12-013
#2Ohio State12-010
IU 43%57% OSU
model +2.4 · off by 5.4
Final · neutral
#47Duke7-527
#44Virginia10-220
DUKE 47%53% UVA
model +0.9 · off by 7.9

10:00 PM ET

1 game
Final
#145Rhode Island—26
#120UC Davis—47
Rhode Island 38%62% UC Davis
model +5.3 · off by 15.7