CFB
Model

2024 Games

Win probability, projected score, and a calibrated margin for every game in Division I.

Updated: Week 17 - 09.07.26 23:29 EDT

Thursday, Sep 26

7:30 PM ET

1 game
Final
#59Army3-042
#165Temple1-314
ARMY 74%26% TEM
model -8.6 · off by 19.4

Friday, Sep 27

7:30 PM ET

1 game
Final
#27Virginia Tech2-234
#8Miami4-038
VT 10%90% MIA
model +17.1 · off by 13.1

Time TBA

1 game
Final
#34Washington3-118
#32Rutgers3-021
WASH 54%46% RUTG
model -1.4 · off by 4.4

Saturday, Sep 28

12:00 PM ET

15 games
Final
#30Kentucky2-220
#3Ole Miss4-017
UK 9%91% MISS
model +17.8 · off by 20.8
Final
#19Oklahoma State3-120
#29Kansas State3-142
OKST 24%76% KSU
model +9.4 · off by 12.6
Final
#43Minnesota2-224
#20Michigan3-127
MINN 22%78% MICH
model +10.3 · off by 7.3
Final
#35Maryland3-128
#23Indiana4-042
MD 28%72% IU
model +8.0 · off by 6.0
Final
#89Western Kentucky3-120
#31Boston College3-121
WKU 27%73% BC
model +8.3 · off by 7.3
Final
#33BYU4-034
#47Baylor2-228
BYU 44%56% BAY
model +2.0 · off by 8.0
Final
#45Nebraska3-128
#82Purdue1-210
NEB 84%16% PUR
model -13.4 · off by 4.6
Final
#84South Florida2-210
#61Tulane2-245
USF 33%67% TULN
model +5.8 · off by 29.2
Final
#156Holy Cross—14
#65Syracuse2-142
HC 2%98% SYR
model +27.2 · off by 0.8
Final
#75Navy3-041
#114UAB1-218
NAVY 70%30% UAB
model -7.1 · off by 15.9
Final
#80Northern Illinois2-117
#76NC State2-224
NIU 38%62% NCSU
model +4.2 · off by 2.8
Final
#122Buffalo3-13
#94UConn2-247
BUF 28%72% CONN
model +7.8 · off by 36.2
Final
#143Harvard—28
#173Brown—31
Harvard 69%31% Brown
model -8.2 · off by 11.2
Final
#218Bucknell—38
#180Lehigh—35
Bucknell 31%69% Lehigh
model +8.4 · off by 11.4
Final
#229Dayton—47
#257Marist—14
Dayton 64%36% Marist
model -6.1 · off by 26.9

12:30 PM ET

1 game
Final
#155Columbia—17
#220Georgetown—20
Columbia 48%52% Georgetown
model +0.8 · off by 2.2

1:00 PM ET

6 games
Final
#123Dartmouth—16
#211Merrimack—14
Dartmouth 67%33% Merrimack
model -7.1 · off by 5.1
Final
#198Colgate—17
#127Pennsylvania—27
Colgate 25%75% Pennsylvania
model +11.2 · off by 1.2
Final
#203Fordham—21
#166Monmouth—63
Fordham 29%71% Monmouth
model +9.1 · off by 32.9
Final
#227San Diego—28
#232Drake—30
San Diego 41%59% Drake
model +3.6 · off by 1.6
Final
#244Houston Christian—27
#230Indiana State—24
Houston Christian 32%68% Indiana State
model +7.9 · off by 10.9
Final
#256Valparaiso—5
#258Morehead State—17
Valparaiso 37%63% Morehead State
model +5.5 · off by 6.5

1:30 PM ET

1 game
Final
#149Ball State1-27
#68James Madison3-063
BALL 6%94% JMU
model +20.4 · off by 35.6

2:00 PM ET

9 games
Final
#153Southern Illinois—13
#95South Dakota—42
Southern Illinois 40%60% South Dakota
model +4.3 · off by 24.7
Final
#140Richmond—27
#150Elon—17
Richmond 45%55% Elon
model +2.2 · off by 12.2
Final
#228Murray State—35
#147North Dakota—72
Murray State 16%84% North Dakota
model +16.7 · off by 20.3
Final
#161Yale—23
#207Cornell—47
Yale 71%29% Cornell
model -9.0 · off by 33.0
Final
#170Southern Utah—28
#210Austin Peay—17
Southern Utah 40%60% Austin Peay
model +4.0 · off by 15.0
Final
#212North Alabama—25
#178West Georgia—16
North Alabama 46%54% West Georgia
model +1.6 · off by 10.6
Final
#182Samford—0
#195Furman—0
Samford 26%75% Furman
model +11.0 · off by 11.0
Final
#206Robert Morris—7
#184Eastern Kentucky—31
Robert Morris 21%79% Eastern Kentucky
model +13.4 · off by 10.6
Final
#245Delaware State—41
#205Campbell—44
Delaware State 9%91% Campbell
model +21.9 · off by 18.9

3:00 PM ET

9 games
Final
#70North Dakota State—42
#160Illinois State—10
North Dakota State 67%33% Illinois State
model -7.5 · off by 24.5
Final · neutral
#87Texas State2-139
#93Sam Houston3-140
TXST 70%30% SHSU
model -7.1 · off by 8.1
Final
#191Youngstown State—31
#112Missouri State—38
Youngstown State 41%59% Missouri State
model +4.0 · off by 3.0
Final
#134Mercer—22
#163Wofford—3
Mercer 72%28% Wofford
model -9.8 · off by 9.2
Final
#208Howard—13
#175Princeton—30
Howard 28%72% Princeton
model +9.6 · off by 7.4
Final · neutral
#200North Carolina Central—37
#237Norfolk State—10
North Carolina Central 69%31% Norfolk State
model -8.3 · off by 18.7
Final
#221Lindenwood—28
#201Eastern Illinois—25
Lindenwood 21%79% Eastern Illinois
model +13.5 · off by 16.5
Final
#213Cal Poly—28
#233Northern Colorado—7
Cal Poly 40%60% Northern Colorado
model +4.3 · off by 25.3
Final
#226Alabama State—26
#251Bethune-Cookman—21
Alabama State 54%46% Bethune-Cookman
model -1.7 · off by 3.3

3:30 PM ET

18 games
Final
#11Louisville3-024
#10Notre Dame3-131
LOU 20%80% ND
model +11.1 · off by 4.1
Final
#66Colorado3-148
#15UCF3-021
COLO 21%79% UCF
model +10.8 · off by 37.8
Final
#52Wisconsin2-121
#18USC2-138
WIS 18%82% USC
model +12.5 · off by 4.5
Final · neutral
#60TCU2-238
#21Kansas1-327
TCU 43%57% KU
model +2.3 · off by 13.3
Final · neutral
#41Arkansas3-117
#26Texas A&M3-121
ARK 31%70% TA&M
model +6.9 · off by 2.9
Final
#28Oklahoma3-127
#44Auburn2-221
OU 50%50% AUB
model 0.0 · off by 6.0
Final
#55Fresno State3-114
#50UNLV3-059
FRES 43%57% UNLV
model +2.5 · off by 42.5
Final
#73Louisiana2-141
#78Wake Forest1-238
UL 42%58% WAKE
model +2.7 · off by 5.7
Final
#96Georgia Southern2-238
#124Georgia State2-121
GASO 43%57% GAST
model +2.3 · off by 19.3
Final
#116Western Michigan1-220
#99Marshall1-227
WMU 35%65% MRSH
model +5.1 · off by 1.9
Final
#176Massachusetts1-320
#101Miami (OH)0-323
MASS 11%89% M-OH
model +16.7 · off by 13.7
Final
#241Sacred Heart—0
#111Delaware—49
Sacred Heart 5%95% Delaware
model +28.1 · off by 20.9
Final
#135San Diego State1-221
#117Central Michigan2-222
SDSU 49%52% CMU
model +0.5 · off by 0.5
Final
#177Akron1-310
#120Ohio2-230
AKR 15%85% OHIO
model +13.8 · off by 6.2
Final
#130Eastern Michigan3-152
#196Kent State0-433
EMU 86%14% KENT
model -14.8 · off by 4.2
Final
#186Morgan State—3
#197Stony Brook—22
Morgan State 48%52% Stony Brook
model +0.8 · off by 18.2
Final
#189Maine—34
#188UAlbany—20
Maine 13%87% UAlbany
model +19.0 · off by 33.0
Pregame forecast
Liberty4-028p
App State2-220p
LIB 73%27% APP
MarginLIB by 8.3Total51

4:00 PM ET

5 games
Final
#62North Carolina3-120
#51Duke4-021
UNC 54%46% DUKE
model -1.3 · off by 2.3
Final
#107UTSA2-220
#100East Carolina2-230
UTSA 47%53% ECU
model +1.2 · off by 8.8
Final
#103Sacramento State—16
#152Northern Arizona—34
Sacramento State 59%41% Northern Arizona
model -3.8 · off by 21.8
Final
#261Northwestern State—0
#141Southeast Missouri State—19
Northwestern State 7%93% Southeast Missouri State
model +24.0 · off by 5.0
Final
#199Tennessee Tech—52
#193Gardner-Webb—21
Tennessee Tech 23%77% Gardner-Webb
model +12.2 · off by 43.2

4:15 PM ET

1 game
Final
#102Mississippi State1-313
#5Texas4-035
MSST 1%99% TEX
model +29.5 · off by 7.5

5:00 PM ET

2 games
Final
#118Old Dominion0-330
#72Bowling Green1-227
ODU 20%80% BGSU
model +11.6 · off by 14.6
Final
#171East Tennessee State—34
#214The Citadel—17
East Tennessee State 63%37% The Citadel
model -5.5 · off by 11.5

6:00 PM ET

8 games
Final
#92Montana State—37
#167Idaho State—17
Montana State 87%13% Idaho State
model -18.9 · off by 1.1
Final · neutral
#154Louisiana Tech1-210
#115Florida International1-317
LT 54%46% FIU
model -1.4 · off by 8.4
Final
#219Long Island University—10
#119Villanova—24
Long Island University 5%95% Villanova
model +27.5 · off by 13.5
Final
#246Wagner—10
#132Florida Atlantic1-341
WAG 2%98% FAU
model +28.2 · off by 2.8
Final
#181Hampton—7
#142William & Mary—49
Hampton 19%81% William & Mary
model +14.3 · off by 27.7
Final
#145UT Martin—24
#192Kennesaw State0-313
UTM 31%69% KENN
model +6.5 · off by 17.5
Final
#236North Carolina A&T—25
#202South Carolina State—45
North Carolina A&T 31%69% South Carolina State
model +8.4 · off by 11.6
Final
#216Charleston Southern—9
#235Tennessee State—13
Charleston Southern 37%63% Tennessee State
model +5.6 · off by 1.6

7:00 PM ET

11 games
Final
#13Iowa State3-020
#88Houston1-30
ISU 82%18% HOU
model -12.1 · off by 7.9
Final
#77Stanford2-114
#16Clemson2-140
STAN 10%90% CLEM
model +17.3 · off by 8.7
Final
#136Tulsa2-220
#98North Texas3-152
TLSA 21%79% UNT
model +11.0 · off by 21.0
Final
#162UL Monroe2-113
#106Troy1-39
ULM 14%87% TROY
model +14.9 · off by 18.9
Final
#174Lamar—14
#109Central Arkansas—34
Lamar 10%90% Central Arkansas
model +21.7 · off by 1.7
Final
#159Charlotte1-321
#113Rice1-320
CLT 35%65% RICE
model +5.1 · off by 6.1
Final
#222SE Louisiana—33
#146Tarleton State—36
SE Louisiana 11%89% Tarleton State
model +20.0 · off by 17.0
Final
#209Portland State—30
#157Chattanooga—45
Portland State 30%70% Chattanooga
model +8.8 · off by 6.2
Final
#215Jackson State—43
#242Texas Southern—14
Jackson State 56%44% Texas Southern
model -2.7 · off by 26.3
Final · neutral
#234Grambling—34
#249Prairie View A&M—36
Grambling 69%31% Prairie View A&M
model -8.0 · off by 10.0
Final
#254Alcorn State—42
#263Mississippi Valley State—21
Alcorn State 73%27% Mississippi Valley State
model -10.4 · off by 10.6

7:30 PM ET

4 games
Game of the weekFinal
#4Georgia3-034
#2Alabama3-041
UGA 49%51% ALA
model +0.4 · off by 6.6
Final
#1Ohio State3-038
#67Michigan State3-17
OSU 98%2% MSU
model -27.0 · off by 4.0
Final
#40Illinois4-07
#7Penn State3-021
ILL 14%86% PSU
model +14.6 · off by 0.6
Final
#179Middle Tennessee1-37
#54Memphis3-124
MTSU 7%93% MEM
model +19.7 · off by 2.7

7:45 PM ET

1 game
Final
#74South Alabama2-210
#12LSU3-142
USA 15%85% LSU
model +14.2 · off by 17.8

8:00 PM ET

2 games
Final
#105Montana—52
#183Eastern Washington—49
Montana 78%22% Eastern Washington
model -13.0 · off by 10.0
Final
#187McNeese—28
#139Weber State—26
McNeese 19%82% Weber State
model +14.9 · off by 16.9

9:00 PM ET

1 game
Final
#129Abilene Christian—55
#240Utah Tech—30
Abilene Christian 64%36% Utah Tech
model -6.0 · off by 19.0

10:00 PM ET

2 games
Final
#49Washington State4-024
#42Boise State2-145
WSU 29%71% BOIS
model +7.4 · off by 13.6
Final
#91Idaho—26
#128UC Davis—28
Idaho 55%45% UC Davis
model -1.9 · off by 3.9

10:15 PM ET

1 game
Final
#38Arizona2-123
#24Utah4-010
ARIZ 38%62% UTAH
model +4.0 · off by 17.0

11:00 PM ET

1 game
Final
#9Oregon3-034
#86UCLA1-213
ORE 93%7% UCLA
model -20.2 · off by 0.8

Time TBA

4 games
Final
#56Florida State1-316
#22SMU3-142
FSU 22%78% SMU
model +10.6 · off by 15.4
Final
#48Cincinnati3-141
#57Texas Tech3-144
CIN 35%65% TTU
model +5.1 · off by 2.1
Final
#133Air Force1-219
#125Wyoming0-431
AF 72%28% WYO
model -7.8 · off by 19.8
Final
#144New Mexico0-450
#168New Mexico State1-340
UNM 56%44% NMSU
model -2.0 · off by 8.0

Sunday, Sep 29

5:00 PM ET

1 game
Final
#231Davidson—48
#253Presbyterian—37
Davidson 67%33% Presbyterian
model -7.2 · off by 3.8