2024 Predictions
Win probability, projected score, and a calibrated margin for every game. FCS predictions
- Season
- 2024
- Weeks
- 15
- Games
- 873
Game of the weekSun Dec 8 · 1:00 AM · neutral siteFull breakdown
PSU 41%59% ORE
- Spread
- ORE -3.2
- Total
- 52
- Margin σ
- 13.3
Margin distribution
Sat Dec 7final · model ✓
#95Western Kentucky
8-5 · AVR 37.8
#57Jacksonville State
9-4 · AVR 50.7
Pregame win probability
WKU 21%79% JXST
model +10.7 · off by 29.3Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 7 · 1:00 AMfinal · model ✓
#41UNLV
10-3 · AVR 56.6
#15Boise State
12-1 · AVR 65.1
Pregame win probability
UNLV 37%63% BOIS
model +4.5 · off by 9.5Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 7 · 1:00 AMfinal · model ✗
#27Tulane
9-4 · AVR 60.0
#46Army
11-2 · AVR 54.2
Pregame win probability
TULN 71%29% ARMY
model -7.3 · off by 28.3Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 7 · 5:00 PM· neutral sitefinal · model ✓
#34Iowa State
10-3 · AVR 58.0
#22Arizona State
11-2 · AVR 63.1
Pregame win probability
ISU 44%56% ASU
model +2.1 · off by 23.9Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 7 · 5:00 PM· neutral sitefinal · model ✗
#70Ohio
10-3 · AVR 46.1
#71Miami (OH)
8-5 · AVR 45.8
Pregame win probability
OHIO 42%58% M-OH
model +2.6 · off by 37.6Full breakdown ›
Sat Dec 7 · 9:00 PM· neutral sitefinal · model ✗
#10Georgia
11-2 · AVR 75.2
#4Texas
11-2 · AVR 78.9
Pregame win probability
UGA 34%66% TEX
model +5.4 · off by 8.4Full breakdown ›
Sun Dec 8 · 12:30 AMfinal · model ✗
#74Marshall
10-3 · AVR 45.2
#78Louisiana
10-3 · AVR 44.6
Pregame win probability
MRSH 34%67% UL
model +5.8 · off by 33.8Full breakdown ›
Sun Dec 8 · 1:00 AM· neutral sitefinal · model ✗
#18Clemson
10-3 · AVR 64.4
#12SMU
11-2 · AVR 70.7
Pregame win probability
CLEM 27%73% SMU
model +8.2 · off by 11.2Full breakdown ›