AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#82Away
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
34p
#135Home
Charlotte
0-0 · AVR 23.3
23p
NAVY 77%23% CLT
Spread
NAVY -11.0
Total
56
Moneyline
NAVY-340CLT+340
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NAVY advantageevenCLT advantage →
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
NAVY +32
NAVY run
NAVY +81
CLT throw
CLT +13
CLT run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
NAVY +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
Curtis Simpson
LT · NAVY
EDGE · CLT
101.4
57.5
NAVY +44
when CLT runs
Chance Williams
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · CLT
MLB · NAVY
51.5
74.9
NAVY +23
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Shamar McIntosh
X · NAVY
CB1 · CLT
54.7
64.5
CLT +10
when CLT throws
Jaden Barnes
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · CLT
CB1 · NAVY
56.9
53.9
CLT +3
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
CJ Clinkscales Jr.
TE · NAVY
FS · CLT
56.9
33.0
NAVY +24
over the middle
Lane Wadle
vs
Phillip Hamilton
TE · CLT
FS · NAVY
45.2
40.2
CLT +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878
Charlotte
DBShamar McIntosh
64.5373/1427
WRJaden Barnes
56.9144/777
DBJameel Croft Jr.
53.9652/1427
RBChance Williams
51.5252/514
WRTank Boston
49.1337/777
QBCole Gonzales
48.2182/308

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Navy
opponent
Charlotte
home+8.0
Tulsa#110
-10.5away
home+0.4
North Texas#80
-18.1away
home+7.7
Temple#113
-10.8away
away+4.1
UAB#121
-9.3away
home-1.3
Memphis#63
-14.7home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNAVY +11.095% interval: -35.6 to 13.680% interval: -28.9 to 6.9-29+7NAVY wins 77%CLT wins 23%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NAVY 35–21 CLTCLT 18–60 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCLT 21–56 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 25–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 28–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCLT 32–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 35–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 39–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 42–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 46–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCLT 14–56 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 18–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 21–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 25–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 28–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCLT 32–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 35–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 39–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 42–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 11–53 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 14–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 18–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 21–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCLT 25–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCLT 28–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 32–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 35–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 39–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 7–49 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCLT 11–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCLT 14–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 18–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 21–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLT 25–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCLT 28–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 32–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 35–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 4–46 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 7–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCLT 11–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 14–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCLT 18–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 21–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCLT 25–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCLT 28–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCLT 32–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 0–42 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCLT 4–39 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCLT 7–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCLT 11–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCLT 14–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 18–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCLT 21–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 25–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCLT 28–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CLT 0–35 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCLT 4–32 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCLT 7–28 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCLT 11–25 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 14–21 NAVY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCLT 18–18 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCLT 21–14 NAVY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCLT 25–11 NAVY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalNAVY +42NAVY +28NAVY +14PKCLT +14margin →