CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 3:00 PM ET
#100Away
App State
3-2 · AVR 53.8
27p
#96Home
South Alabama
4-2 · AVR 55.2
31p
Forecast win probability
APP 37.2%62.8% USA
Projected margin
USA by 5.1
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
APP 13 to USA 24
Win probability
USA 62.8%

Current team profiles

App State
South Alabama

When App State has the ball

Passing

APP offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP offense
#47
USA defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

APP offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP offense
#107
USA defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.01
#107
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

APP offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP offense
#83
USA defense
#137
Success rates
42%
#83
51%
#137
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#84
0.27
#134
EPA / play
1.26
#52
1.36
#119
Explosiveness
15%
#87
17%
#52
Havoc

When South Alabama has the ball

Passing

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP defense
#41
USA offense
#37
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.34
#37
Pass EPA

Rushing

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP defense
#56
USA offense
#30
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.20
#30
Rush EPA

Drive success

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP defense
#72
USA offense
#69
Success rates
40%
#72
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#52
0.23
#36
EPA / play
1.06
#12
1.33
#23
Explosiveness
19%
#28
13%
#34
Havoc

Current key players

App State
QBMalachi Singleton
1206 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
91.28/729
RBKanye Roberts
31 yds · 0 TD · 7.8 YPC
81.361/1044
LBCarson Sloan
15 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.5
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.6107/1796
WRJackson Grier
5 rec · 48 yds · 1 TD
77.976/2069
WRSam Pickett III
20 rec · 326 yds · 3 TD
76.795/2069
DBDre Walker
8 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
39.2
Coverage
83.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
97
Passer rating allowed
34.6
Missed tackles
3
75.2187/2969
South Alabama
QBBishop Davenport
450 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
73.0129/729
RBPJ Martin
328 yds · 5 TD · 4.3 YPC
79.985/1044
CBDamyrion Darby
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
42.8
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
115
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
4
76.1156/2969
SDeon Callins
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
73.6252/2969
LBXavious Anderson Jr.
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.1
Coverage
75.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.4242/1796
CBJaylen Moson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
53.1
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
70.8
Missed tackles
5
70.0446/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Brian Barnes · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Khatori Marion · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Maddox Lynch · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • D. White · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Marshall on Tuesday, October 22nd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

APP
USA
vs
Offense
91.2
#9 of 138
QB
73.0
#90 of 138
77.7
#49 of 138
RB
78.0
#47 of 138
76.6
#28 of 138
WR
68.0
#110 of 138
67.0
#83 of 138
TE
61.4
#109 of 138
62.7
#116 of 138
OL
65.6
#91 of 138
Defense
76.3
#41 of 138
DL
65.2
#135 of 138
74.1
#68 of 138
LB
66.2
#128 of 138
67.2
#124 of 138
DB
69.4
#106 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

App State
opponent
South Alabama
A-1.8
MRSH#124
+0.6A
H+16.8
ULM#163
+17.0H