AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 8:00 PM
#103Away
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
25p
#100Home
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
31p
APP 36%64% USA
Spread
USA -5.2
Total
56
Moneyline
APP+178USA-178
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← APP advantageevenUSA advantage →
APP throw
APP protection #46
APP +6
APP run
APP +34
USA throw
even
USA run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Colton Phares
RB · USA
MLB · APP
60.0
76.6
APP +17
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Emmanuel Waller
LT · APP
EDGE · USA
81.7
46.3
APP +35
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · USA
CB1 · APP
49.2
77.4
APP +28
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · APP
MLB · USA
60.6
59.9
dead even
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · APP
CB1 · USA
41.4
69.9
USA +29
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Devin Henderson
TE · USA
FS · APP
43.7
51.7
APP +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
App State
opponent
South Alabama
home+12.4
UL Monroe#132
+15.1home
away-7.3
Marshall#83
-4.7away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSA +5.295% interval: -19.4 to 29.880% interval: -12.7 to 23.1-13+23APP wins 36%USA wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USA 32–25 APPUSA 28–49 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 32–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 35–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 39–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 42–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 46–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 49–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 53–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 56–21 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 25–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 28–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 32–39 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 35–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 39–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 42–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSA 46–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 49–21 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 53–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 21–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 25–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 28–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSA 32–32 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSA 35–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 39–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 42–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 46–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 49–14 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 18–39 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 21–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 25–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 28–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 32–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 35–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSA 39–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSA 42–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSA 46–11 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 14–35 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 18–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 21–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSA 25–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSA 28–21 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 32–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSA 35–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 39–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSA 42–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 11–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 14–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 18–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 21–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 25–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSA 28–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSA 32–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 35–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 39–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 7–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSA 11–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 14–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 18–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 21–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 25–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 28–7 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSA 32–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 35–0 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalAPP +21APP +7USA +7USA +21USA +35margin →